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Eshan Kaul's Projects

econ-4984-workshop-in-applied-policy-analysis-monetary-policy- icon econ-4984-workshop-in-applied-policy-analysis-monetary-policy-

We have all heard the countless Bitcoin backers claiming that Bitcoin is a bullet-proof hedge against inflation and is the best way to protect long-term wealth, and recently many established financial institutions have also been hoping onto this bandwagon. Their argument is simple. Bitcoin, unlike normal fiat currencies, has a limited, predetermined supply of coins that can be entered into circulation. This means that governments or central banks can not devalue the currency by increasing the supply. This limited quantity attribute has resulted in many individual and institutional investors liking bitcoin to gold which used to be believed as a hedge against the dollar. The goal of this project is to determine if there is any validity to the argument that cryptocurrencies can be used as a hedge against inflation. Are cryptocurrencies really a good method of protecting wealth from inflation and if so, do all cryptocurrencies work, or are specific currencies that work better than others. These questions are motivated by the larger questions of how does adjusting the money supply while maintaining the monetary base affects the greater economy, but for the purposes of this project, we will focus on tackling the more specific questions of what are the relationships between crypto and inflation? To address this issue we would like to collect relevant data on historical and current inflation rates along with data on the price patterns of at least one type of fixed supply cryptocurrency and one type of cryptocurrency with a flexible supply. The analysis will be broken down into two parts. The first part will compare the current/previous relationship between cryptocurrencies and inflation rates. The second part will then be to develop a model to estimate the future trends of cryptocurrencies and inflation rates to explore how the two might vary in the future.

pairstrading-crypto icon pairstrading-crypto

An emerging asset class, the recent surge of popularity in crypto markets has made cryptocurrencies an essential part of investment portfolios for retail and institutional investors. As prices for cryptocurrencies continue to break previous highs, the race is on for investors to develop a trading strategy that can take advantage of the high volatility and fluctuation that exists in the crypto markets. The pairs trading strategy is an example of a market-neutral strategy that attempts to take advantage of the mean reversion principle to eliminate inefficiencies between two highly correlated assets. In a market that is riddled with inefficiencies, the pairs trading strategy might be a highly effective and lucrative trading stagey for investors in crypto markets.

regression-voting-ensemble-for-solar-power-prediction icon regression-voting-ensemble-for-solar-power-prediction

Developed an ensemble voting model that included Random Forests, Linear Regression, Orthogonal Matching Pursuit, and Gradient Boosting Regressor to predict future solar power generated by a solar plant in India at 98.7% accuracy. Placed 1st at the Virginia Tech Computational Modeling & Data Analytics Fall 2022 Data Competition.

tv-mvp_finalproject icon tv-mvp_finalproject

Replicating the results of the Time-varying Minimum Variance Portfolio proposed by Fan et al. and exploring alternative methods for the TV-MPV

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