Comments (7)
Duplicate of #31
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@azmorley if you install the Github version to get the fix in #39 does it work for you?
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Doesn't seem to work for me, I'm getting the same issue still.
from prophet.
Can you paste your holidays dataframe so I can try to replicate? Also, what is the shape of forecast
?
from prophet.
The holidays I'm using are our company's Black Friday sales period. We're trying to forecast the total number of orders, using weekly data going back to 2009. Our data has a couple of key sales periods but as Black Friday is by far the biggest spike, this is the only 'holiday' we have included at present.
BlackFridays <- data_frame(
holiday = 'BlackFriday',
ds = as.Date(c('2007-11-26', '2008-12-01', '2009-11-30', '2010-11-29', '2011-11-28', '2012-12-10'
,'2013-12-02', '2014-11-28', '2015-11-27', '2016-11-25', '2017-11-24')),
lower_window = 3,
upper_window = 3
)
The forecast looks good, with a large spike around Black Friday and even a spike around the time of our main Summer sale. it fits the historical trend fairly well (though still can't quite fit the extreme number of orders we get around Black Friday).
> tail(forecast[c('ds', 'yhat', 'yhat_lower', 'yhat_upper', 'BlackFriday')])
ds yhat yhat_lower yhat_upper BlackFriday
430 2017-11-20 39153.40 35329.04 42721.88 0.000
431 2017-11-27 39560.27 35800.32 43521.27 -3518.919
432 2017-12-04 44010.21 39923.43 47756.38 0.000
433 2017-12-11 41848.96 37978.81 45582.00 0.000
434 2017-12-18 37880.10 34284.02 41330.70 0.000
435 2017-12-25 33780.24 29921.00 37436.34 0.000
from prophet.
I was able to replicate this error in the CRAN version, but it is working for me with the Github version. Could you try re-installing from Github one more time to see if the problem persists?
devtools::install_github('facebookincubator/prophet', subdir='R')
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Ah yeah it works now, I must have messed up the install somehow!
Thanks :)
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