Comments (1)
Voting is done post-event because that is the time at which someone could most-reliably know anything about the event. For example, the Groundhog may be wrong. The market price, however, is available at all times, and continuously and unanimously integrates opinions of all users (including [especially] those who do not trade). One could look at how the market price changes in response to the Groundhog's behavior, for example.
As to the meteorite, the answer is still 'yes'. One can construct a conditional bet, ie " the meteorite will hit | we do nothing", or one can say " NASA to release an official statement in two years saying that we would have all been killed by meteorite if we had done nothing". Obviously, this doesn't mean that we should wait until the meteorite has destroyed the planet to take preventative action in general, it only means that we should wait on this one particular action (voting).
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