The optimisation progresses for 128 runs.
However, when I look into the resultìng configs.json
file, no configuration is marked as model based pick. My config space has only 8 parameters, so in theory, there should be model based configurations after the number of samples has surpassed the number of parameters. See
[[0, 0, 0], {"alpha": 0.524941863685754, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 17, "past_period_cutoff": 19, "power_transform": "none", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 3, "years_back": 4}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[0, 0, 1], {"alpha": 0.014050776687360433, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 18, "past_period_cutoff": 4, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": true, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 8, "years_back": 1}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[0, 0, 2], {"alpha": 0.6823946565390872, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 20, "past_period_cutoff": 13, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": true, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 6, "years_back": 1}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[0, 0, 3], {"alpha": 0.33185521346027425, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 4, "past_period_cutoff": 17, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": true, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 7, "years_back": 2}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[0, 0, 4], {"alpha": 0.0770872141301081, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 20, "past_period_cutoff": 9, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 7, "years_back": 1}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[0, 0, 5], {"alpha": 0.0016518925802035955, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 11, "past_period_cutoff": 10, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 10, "years_back": 4}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[0, 0, 6], {"alpha": 0.1310824459173171, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 12, "past_period_cutoff": 1, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 8, "years_back": 1}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[0, 0, 7], {"alpha": 0.9400413364619, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 10, "past_period_cutoff": 5, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 2, "years_back": 4}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[0, 0, 8], {"alpha": 0.6752626901036773, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 1, "past_period_cutoff": 20, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": true, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 4, "years_back": 6}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[0, 0, 9], {"alpha": 0.047950183624705045, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 1, "past_period_cutoff": 8, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": true, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 1, "years_back": 2}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[0, 0, 10], {"alpha": 0.8396727695314329, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 12, "past_period_cutoff": 18, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": true, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 4, "years_back": 6}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[0, 0, 11], {"alpha": 0.5806941681640714, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 7, "past_period_cutoff": 6, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 8, "years_back": 3}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[0, 0, 12], {"alpha": 0.5626021980712306, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 10, "past_period_cutoff": 17, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 1, "years_back": 1}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[0, 0, 13], {"alpha": 0.8680047790128608, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 6, "past_period_cutoff": 1, "power_transform": "none", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 4, "years_back": 6}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[0, 0, 14], {"alpha": 0.08211357957474463, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 3, "past_period_cutoff": 8, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 8, "years_back": 4}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[0, 0, 15], {"alpha": 0.16343877381177196, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 2, "past_period_cutoff": 17, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": true, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 9, "years_back": 3}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[1, 0, 0], {"alpha": 0.608581498475672, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 12, "past_period_cutoff": 10, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": true, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 9, "years_back": 2}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[1, 0, 1], {"alpha": 0.7805692551168152, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 13, "past_period_cutoff": 13, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 9, "years_back": 6}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[1, 0, 2], {"alpha": 0.7571335479905326, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 15, "past_period_cutoff": 4, "power_transform": "none", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 1, "years_back": 4}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[1, 0, 3], {"alpha": 0.8241348058011784, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 6, "past_period_cutoff": 6, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": true, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 7, "years_back": 3}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[1, 0, 4], {"alpha": 0.9650298955804265, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 11, "past_period_cutoff": 8, "power_transform": "none", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 3, "years_back": 6}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[1, 0, 5], {"alpha": 0.5075081024370277, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 10, "past_period_cutoff": 5, "power_transform": "none", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 4, "years_back": 3}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[1, 0, 6], {"alpha": 0.9804635670593818, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 3, "past_period_cutoff": 15, "power_transform": "none", "reweight": true, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 9, "years_back": 2}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[1, 0, 7], {"alpha": 0.6311988898626136, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 12, "past_period_cutoff": 1, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 9, "years_back": 2}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[2, 0, 0], {"alpha": 0.32342707499369594, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 13, "past_period_cutoff": 14, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 10, "years_back": 5}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[2, 0, 1], {"alpha": 0.4583586440011973, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 5, "past_period_cutoff": 13, "power_transform": "none", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 10, "years_back": 3}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[2, 0, 2], {"alpha": 0.7156338748367207, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 6, "past_period_cutoff": 5, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 2, "years_back": 2}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[2, 0, 3], {"alpha": 0.5657098806075379, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 0, "past_period_cutoff": 14, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": true, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 10, "years_back": 5}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[3, 0, 0], {"alpha": 0.3363127940737737, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 8, "past_period_cutoff": 20, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 5, "years_back": 2}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[3, 0, 1], {"alpha": 0.5242762917835478, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 3, "past_period_cutoff": 4, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": true, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 3, "years_back": 5}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[3, 0, 2], {"alpha": 0.5016393195652192, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 3, "past_period_cutoff": 4, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 3, "years_back": 5}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[3, 0, 3], {"alpha": 0.39914393660289926, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 12, "past_period_cutoff": 2, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 5, "years_back": 3}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[4, 0, 0], {"alpha": 0.05534493517982253, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 9, "past_period_cutoff": 15, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": true, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 6, "years_back": 4}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[4, 0, 1], {"alpha": 0.13622099670892762, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 19, "past_period_cutoff": 6, "power_transform": "none", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 5, "years_back": 2}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[4, 0, 2], {"alpha": 0.12018820945777231, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 20, "past_period_cutoff": 2, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": true, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 8, "years_back": 1}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[4, 0, 3], {"alpha": 0.7712294660119288, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 18, "past_period_cutoff": 2, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 4, "years_back": 5}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[4, 0, 4], {"alpha": 0.17085267135509474, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 2, "past_period_cutoff": 19, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": true, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 4, "years_back": 3}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[5, 0, 0], {"alpha": 0.6406725809981577, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 7, "past_period_cutoff": 6, "power_transform": "none", "reweight": true, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 1, "years_back": 1}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[5, 0, 1], {"alpha": 0.07893077231480505, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 0, "past_period_cutoff": 3, "power_transform": "none", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 7, "years_back": 5}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[5, 0, 2], {"alpha": 0.6481148805587776, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 5, "past_period_cutoff": 10, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 10, "years_back": 2}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[5, 0, 3], {"alpha": 0.4689859978145161, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 3, "past_period_cutoff": 16, "power_transform": "none", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 2, "years_back": 2}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[5, 0, 4], {"alpha": 0.9444550057906, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 17, "past_period_cutoff": 16, "power_transform": "none", "reweight": true, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 1, "years_back": 3}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[5, 0, 5], {"alpha": 0.525204077370409, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 4, "past_period_cutoff": 15, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 7, "years_back": 3}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[5, 0, 6], {"alpha": 0.15001031989028013, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 1, "past_period_cutoff": 12, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 5, "years_back": 1}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[5, 0, 7], {"alpha": 0.4807526236742411, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 20, "past_period_cutoff": 16, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 3, "years_back": 6}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[5, 0, 8], {"alpha": 0.16851233413293298, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 20, "past_period_cutoff": 13, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 5, "years_back": 2}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[5, 0, 9], {"alpha": 0.4679955457055063, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 3, "past_period_cutoff": 13, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": true, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 10, "years_back": 2}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[5, 0, 10], {"alpha": 0.2290977267246188, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 0, "past_period_cutoff": 6, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 4, "years_back": 1}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[5, 0, 11], {"alpha": 0.4584081335897201, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 17, "past_period_cutoff": 15, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 1, "years_back": 4}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[5, 0, 12], {"alpha": 0.17442366724373015, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 9, "past_period_cutoff": 19, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 8, "years_back": 1}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[5, 0, 13], {"alpha": 0.6437935704153152, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 17, "past_period_cutoff": 13, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 10, "years_back": 3}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[5, 0, 14], {"alpha": 0.45499124225140597, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 10, "past_period_cutoff": 20, "power_transform": "none", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 5, "years_back": 1}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[5, 0, 15], {"alpha": 0.6781770477977368, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 19, "past_period_cutoff": 15, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": true, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 9, "years_back": 1}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[6, 0, 0], {"alpha": 0.49315023488468834, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 1, "past_period_cutoff": 16, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 8, "years_back": 5}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[6, 0, 1], {"alpha": 0.6688362696998511, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 15, "past_period_cutoff": 6, "power_transform": "none", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 3, "years_back": 4}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[6, 0, 2], {"alpha": 0.3817554102886793, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 2, "past_period_cutoff": 9, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": true, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 4, "years_back": 6}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[6, 0, 3], {"alpha": 0.7222560188343627, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 11, "past_period_cutoff": 1, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": true, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 4, "years_back": 4}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[6, 0, 4], {"alpha": 0.7218150088590636, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 8, "past_period_cutoff": 12, "power_transform": "none", "reweight": true, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 8, "years_back": 3}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[6, 0, 5], {"alpha": 0.6110155597689844, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 18, "past_period_cutoff": 19, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": true, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 4, "years_back": 4}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[6, 0, 6], {"alpha": 0.0030345783702061535, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 18, "past_period_cutoff": 14, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": true, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 7, "years_back": 5}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[6, 0, 7], {"alpha": 0.1524861965827966, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 3, "past_period_cutoff": 7, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 5, "years_back": 3}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[7, 0, 0], {"alpha": 0.9582654803943511, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 15, "past_period_cutoff": 10, "power_transform": "none", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 2, "years_back": 2}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[7, 0, 1], {"alpha": 0.8477660382632409, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 20, "past_period_cutoff": 19, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": true, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 1, "years_back": 6}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[7, 0, 2], {"alpha": 0.0625928283257986, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 20, "past_period_cutoff": 10, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": false, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 9, "years_back": 4}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[7, 0, 3], {"alpha": 0.6036484764104649, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 5, "past_period_cutoff": 8, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": true, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 5, "years_back": 2}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[8, 0, 0], {"alpha": 0.7673416452088619, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 19, "past_period_cutoff": 10, "power_transform": "none", "reweight": true, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 4, "years_back": 6}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[8, 0, 1], {"alpha": 0.6104863905502328, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 0, "past_period_cutoff": 7, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": true, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 1, "years_back": 1}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[8, 0, 2], {"alpha": 0.42347651180735446, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 9, "past_period_cutoff": 10, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": true, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 7, "years_back": 3}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[8, 0, 3], {"alpha": 0.2852098935148425, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 12, "past_period_cutoff": 13, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 7, "years_back": 3}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[9, 0, 0], {"alpha": 0.3703694721375741, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 19, "past_period_cutoff": 18, "power_transform": "1/2", "reweight": true, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 10, "years_back": 5}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[9, 0, 1], {"alpha": 0.6381241720517308, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 20, "past_period_cutoff": 5, "power_transform": "none", "reweight": true, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 6, "years_back": 4}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[9, 0, 2], {"alpha": 0.09780255550621686, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 19, "past_period_cutoff": 20, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 2, "years_back": 1}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[9, 0, 3], {"alpha": 0.7338647016940335, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 3, "past_period_cutoff": 10, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": true, "trend": false, "window_half_size": 9, "years_back": 4}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
[[9, 0, 4], {"alpha": 0.46763338062020066, "min_cases_in_past_periods": 11, "past_period_cutoff": 18, "power_transform": "2/3", "reweight": false, "trend": true, "window_half_size": 3, "years_back": 6}, {"model_based_pick": false}]
Also I would like to know if it is possible to increase the total number of runs. Should one just increase the number of iterations? What exactly comprises an iteration? Is it one complete round of SuccessiveHalfing on all bugets?
Any help is greatly appreciated.