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Reading News: UK's nightclubs suffer as young people seek less hedonistic pursuits

UK's nightclubs suffer as young people seek less hedonistic pursuits

from the Guardian

Questions:

1. “享乐主义”用英文怎么表达？
2. "bingo" means?
3. Why less and less UK's young people go to nightclub?

An estimated £200m has been wiped off the value of the UK nightclub scene in the past five years as partygoers desert the dancefloor in search of new pleasures.

wipe off: 擦掉，损失（损失通常用被动，如:
A has been wiped off B 表示B的下跌造成了损失A，
billion of pounds were wiped off share prices 股票价格的下跌造成了数十亿英镑的损失）

desert: 抛弃，离开
to desert a friend in need
to desert a city

A new breed of nightlife is taking their place, with food, games and even exercise trumping the hedonism of dancing to DJ mixes. Adam Breeden, an entrepreneur who has developed concepts based on darts, ping pong, golf and, next year, bingo, said the willingness of people to choose games for a night out, rather than supposedly cooler dance music, showed that the young generation had the confidence to pursue what it really wants.

a breed of: 一种类型的
a different breed of polician
a rare breed of pig

trump: 原意为出王牌赢过，引申为打败、胜过

dancing to DJ mixes: 跟随DJ混音跳舞

dart:
做名词时，单数形式表示一个个飞镖，复数形式表示飞镖游戏
做动词时，可以表示飞飞镖，也可以表示某人向飞镖一样飞奔到某个地方
She made a dart for the door 她像飞镖一样朝门口飞奔过去

bingo: 宾果游戏，喊数开牌，对上则赢

a night out: 晚上出去活动

supposedly: 似乎，表示猜测

So we know that young people do not have to go to nightclub for showing they are cool guys but they have more choice which they can find what they really want.

Meanwhile, festivals, dating websites and social networking have undermined one of clubbing’s unique selling points: a chance to find romance.

undermined: 削弱（信心，权威等）

clubbing: 泡夜店

And there is data support——

The figures are stark: 11% of adults went to nightclubs at least once a month in the year to September, down from 15% two years earlier, according to Mintel, a market research company. It estimates there has been a 17% drop in the value of the clubbing market since 2013.

stark: 残酷的，严峻的
My students now face the stark reality of exams.

What do people related to this market think about?——

The founder of Warehouse Project in Manchester, Sacha Lord said: “The 18- to 23-year-olds that are coming through now are into what they’re wearing, how they look, what they eat, and that’s down to the explosion of social media. Instagram is all about everybody wants the perfect look, everybody wants to be seen at the right places. Whereas a few years ago, when the kids were all out binge drinking. Nobody wants that any more now—everybody wants to portray this amazing, perfect life.”

be into: = be interested in

A is all about B: A全部都是关于B，可以理解成A充满了B
Instagram is all about everybody wants the perfect look, ...

binge drinking: 酗酒，纵酒

portray: 描画，描绘，呈现

Questions:

1. “享乐主义”用英文怎么表达？
2. "bingo" means?
3. Why less and less UK's young people go to nightclub?

Review:

1. --

【速记】关于 redux-saga 的 takeEvery 和 while(true)

结合作者提问，重点看这两个回答

第一个回答指出了 takeEvery 适用于大型应用，因为大型应用中需要对 sagas 进行分割；另外还指出 while(true) take and call 会导致遗漏（drop）对 action 的响应（当 action 触发频繁到一定程度时），因为 call 是阻塞调用，如果在阻塞过程中相同的 action 再次触发，则会由于没有运行到 take 而监听不到该 action，从而漏掉了这个 action。

第二个回答补充了第一个回答中关于遗漏 action 方面的解释，指出有些应用场合可能就是要遗漏的，所以要视应用要求而定；当应用场景足够特殊或复杂时，可能 takeEvery 也不能完全适用（毕竟它的定位是一个 helper），此时用 while(true) take and fork 可以获得更大的控制权。

【速记】关于 redux-saga 为什么用 genarator 而不是 async-await

两个理由：

1. 更好的测试体验

详见声明式 Effects

2. generator 比 async-await 能做的更多

详见：

• when will redux-saga migrate to async/await?
• Async/Await
• Redux Saga vs Async/Await
• Is there any plan to rewrite redux-saga using async-await?
• Saga ? Why not CSP ?

本质都是用户对 generator 的控制权相对 async-await 更大

Linux 文件权限管理极简概述

Linux 文件权限管理简述

概念

　　Linux 文件权限管理概念包括：文件拥有者、文件群组、文件属性。

　　文件拥有者：拥有该文件的用户；

　　文件群组：允许查看^r、编辑^w、运行^x的群组（或叫用户组）；

　　文件属性：定义了文件的属性，包括权限、连接数、拥有者、所属群组、容量、最后修改时间、名称。

　　详见：（包含概念的详细介绍）

1. 鸟哥的 Linux 私房菜：基础学习篇 第四版 - 第五章、Linux 的文件权限与目录配置 - 5.1 使用者与群组

2. 鸟哥的 Linux 私房菜：基础学习篇 第四版 - 第五章、Linux 的文件权限与目录配置 - 5.2 文件权限概念

应用

　　比如：两组成员互相竞争，共同编辑同一份文件，同时不允许对方查看或编辑己方文件，且共同文件由另外一个审核成员拥有。

　　则可：

1. 为每个成员创建各自的用户，竞争成员假设为 user1、user2、user3、user4、user5、user6，审核成员为 user0；

2. 为每个组创建各自的群组，假设为 group_0、group_1、group_2；

3. 把 user1~3 加入 group1，把 user4~6 加入 group2，把 user0~7 加入 group0；

4. 由审核成员 user0 创建一份共同文件，拥有者及其权限不变，群组设置为 group_0，群组权限设置为可读写^rw；

　　图解：

　　（暂略）

　　详见：（包含更多实例和解释）

1. 鸟哥的 Linux 私房菜：基础学习篇 第四版 - 第五章、Linux 的文件权限与目录配置 - 5.2 文件权限概念

实践

　　以上述应用为例：

1. useradd user$X^X=0~6；

2. groupadd group$Y^Y=0~2；

　　1) usermod -aG group1 user$X^X=1,3,5；

　　2) usermod -aG group2 user$Y^Y=2,4,6；

　　3) usermod -aG group0 user$Z^Z=0~7；

　　1) su -u user0 touch /usr/share/common_file；

　　2) chgrp group0 /usr/share/common_file；

　　3) chmod 770 /usr/share/common_file^{rwxowner rwxgroup ---others}

　　详见：（包含命令详细使用和解释）

1. 鸟哥的 Linux 私房菜：基础学习篇 第四版 - 第五章、Linux 的文件权限与目录配置 - 5.2 文件权限概念

2. Linux命令大全 - useradd命令

3. Linux命令大全 - usermod命令

4. Linux命令大全 - groupadd命令

5. Linux命令大全 - chgrp命令

6. Linux命令大全 - chmod命令

7. Linux命令大全 - chown命令

http web flash-message

http web flash-message

flash-message 是什么

flash-message 是一种内容和持续时间都很短的提示信息，用于对用户行为的简要提示和反馈。

以用户登录为例：用户在登录页面上输入并提交用户名和密码，服务器校验成功后，会重定向到登录成功后的页面，而如果是失败，则会重定向到登录页面，此时，同一个登录页面上可能就会出现一条持续短短几秒的提示信息（也可能存在直到刷新页面为止），提示用户登录失败（的原因）。

这条提示信息就被称为 flash-message。

flash-message 的2种实现方式

实现上述需求的方法比较直接的方法就是，校验错误的时候，总是返回一个带有 flash-message 的页面。这是静态页面的方式。

如果 login.html 要求是动态页面，则服务端渲染或客户端渲染时需要知道此时该不该加 flash-message。

1. 保存 flash-message 到服务器的 session 中

具体过程是：

1. 客户端访问 login.html

2. 服务端收到，返回 login.html

   • 动态页面 login.html 中，有一个插值是插入 session.flashMessage 的，如果该值为空，则没有失败信息

   • 服务端响应完毕后，则清除 session.flashMessage

3. 客户端提交登录信息

4. 服务端收到，校验用户是否合法

   • 如果校验通过 则返回登录成功后的页面

   • 如果校验失败 则创建或取得 session 并将 session.flashMessage 置为 失败信息，同时重定向到 login.html

   • 客户端重定向到 login.html，也就是返回 第 1 步

缺点是：

如果第 4 步重定向不成功，则服务器不会清除 session.flashMessage（也就是重定向第 1 步后第 2 步没执行）

这会导致，客户端再次访问 login.html （比如重定向的时候断电了，开机后）时，会出现一条登录失败的消息

2. 保存登录失败标识到客户端的 cookie 中

具体过程是：

1. 客户端访问 login.html

2. 服务端收到，返回 login.html

   • 客户端收到应答，则把 cookie.flashMessage 渲染到页面上，同时清除 cookie.flashMessage

3. 客户端提交登录信息

4. 服务端收到，校验用户是否合法

   • 如果校验通过 则返回登录成功后的页面

   • 如果校验失败 则创建或取得 cookie 并将 cookie.flashMessage 置为 失败信息，同时重定向到 login.html

   • 客户端重定向到 login.html，也就是返回 第 1 步

这就解决了第 4 步重定向失败会导致的异常现象，因为第 2 步中客户端发现 cookie 中有 flash-message 就会把它清除

参考

• web应用里的flash message的作用

量价关系模型：米勒模型（Miller, 1977）

量价关系模型：米勒模型（Miller, 1977）

米勒模型的基本**

1. 成交本质上反映的是意见分歧。正是认为价格高估的交易者与认为低估的交易者之间存在的意见分歧，促使了成交的发生；

2. 所以成交量反映的是交易双方意见的分歧程度。交易量越大，则意见分歧越大。

米勒模型假说的前提

1. 投资者具有意见分歧；

2. 市场具有卖空约束。

这两个条件一般市场都能满足：

首先投资者意见分歧显而易见；然后是一般的交易机构都会限制卖空。

什么是卖空？
...
...
...

为什么要限制卖空？
因为卖空需要融券，也就是拿证券资产抵押，乘以一个杠杆倍数，从而获得对应数量的做空标的资产，并将其卖出，获得现金，等价格低位再将同等数量的证券买入，归还给提供融券的机构，从而赚取价差；假设不做限制，那么当现金高于抵押物时，做空者很有可能直接拿着现金跑路；所以通常融券的成本要高于卖空所得的现金。

卖空有哪些限制？
...
...
...

米勒模型假说

1. 卖空约束下，证券将由出价最高者得；

2. 市场平衡时，证券价格一定是高估的。

也就是说：证券价格反映了乐观者的情绪，而不准确反映投资者的平均预期。

米勒模型假说的推论

1. 投资者意见分歧越大，证券价格高估越严重；

2. 投资者卖空难度越大，证券价格高估越严重。

米勒模型假说的应用

1. 意识到股价有泡沫是常态；

股价反映的不是投资者的平均预期，而是投资者的情绪，也就是乐观者的预期；
因此只用基本面分析市场是不够的，了解投资者的心理和行为对投资至关重要。

2. 注意到越是放量，就越需要警惕泡沫的存在；

投资者意见分歧越大，则股价高估越严重
同时投资者意见分歧越大，交易量也越大
因此交易放量往往伴随着股价高估（泡沫）

3. 注意到卖空越困难，就越需要警惕泡沫的存在；

卖空困难包括：无法卖空、缺乏流动性、卖空成本高等
卖空难度越大，则股价高估越严重，泡沫越大 ❓
举个例子：
研究发现：2001~2005 年标普 500 指数中，100 只卖空成本最高的股票平均年收益为 8%，而 100 只卖空成本最低的股票平均年收益为 14%。

4. 判断买入、卖出时机

“新闻出则卖”

来源：

来自 Berkman 等人 2009 年在 JFE 上发表的文章《Sell on the news》。

描述：

如果一件事情还在传闻阶段，则买入；如果这件事情已经落实并发布消息了，则卖出。

得该结论的方法：

在上市公司年报、季报发布的时间窗口中，按照：1. 投资者的意见分歧 和 2. 卖空约束指标 来构建 对冲组合；即：在公告日前 21 天，买入意见分歧最大（股价最高估）的股票，同时卖出意见分歧最小（股价最低估）的股票；观察该组合在公告日前后 21 天的收益率变化。

研究发现：该组合在盈余公告日之前，买入并持有的一组股票收益逐步提高，在公告日前一天达到顶点，随后收益率迅速回落，并逐步降低。

对该结论的解释：传闻阶段投资者情绪导致意见分歧，意见分歧导致股价高估，新闻落实后意见分析消息，股价回落

投资者对盈余公告（新闻）保持了强烈的关注。在公告发布之前，投资者互相竞猜——也就是说，在传闻期间，投资者意见分歧最大，股价被高估；而随着公告被发布，传闻为新闻所所定，投资者的意见分歧也随之迅速消失，股价回落。

应用：从具体数据获知投资者意见分歧程度

包括 5 个衡量指标：公司收入波动、股票收益波动、分析师预测差异、被股票研究数据库收录的时间长短、换手率。

其中，换手率最为稳健也最简单。它是 交易量÷流通股。
交易量反映了意见分歧，流通股反映了卖空难度。

也就是说，在换手率下降之前买入，换手率迅速下降时卖出。

【速记】关于 Immutable State

Redux 没有规定用什么方式来保存 State，可能是 Javascript 对象，或者是 Immutable.js 的数据结构。但是有一点，你最好确保 State 中每个节点都是 Immutable 的，这样将确保 State 的消费者在判断数据是否变化时，只要简单地进行引用比较即可，例如：

newState.todos === prevState.todos

从而避免 Deep Equal 的遍历过程。

——摘自 [Redux 核心概念](https://www.jianshu.com/p/3334467e4b32)

解释：
如果 newState 不是 prevState 的一个副本，而是 prevState 本身做了修改后的结果
那么 newState.anyProps === prevState.anyProps // 结果都是 true
如此 为了判断 newState 相对于 prevState 是否发生变化时，就需要深度等同遍历（Deep Equal）

所以 数据的 immutable 原则就是要保证数据本身是不可变的（immutable），从而获得数据比较上的便利性。

量价关系理论：博傻理论（Greater Fool Theory, 1978）

量价关系理论：博傻理论（Greater Fool Theory, 1978）

博傻理论的观点

　　相比米勒假说更为激进，它认为：

1. 在均衡的时候，价格会超过有所人的预期；

虽然在瞬时投资者对价格的预期存在意见分歧，
但所有投资者对价格的预期平均值就是股票将会长期倾向的均衡价格，
博傻理论就认为，股票的最终价格将超过这个长期均衡价格

2. 短期越是频繁交易，资产的价格就会越高。

博傻理论认为，股票价格不断推高的原因在于，非理性投资者认为有更大的傻瓜接手，
同时认为自己不是那个最大的傻瓜（过度自信），
所以交易越频繁，股价推得越高，
这也是博傻理论的关键点：频繁且快速的交易。

博傻理论的案例

　　权证的末日疯狂

　　什么是权证：认购权证、认沽权证、价内权证、价外权证
权证实为一种期权，有认购和认沽两种形式，它是未来以某一价格购买（或出售）相关证券的权利。
价内权证是指行权之后获得正价值的权证，价外权证反之。

例如：
某一时刻某某股票价格为 100 元，
一认购权证为在未来以 80 元买入该股票的权利，
一认沽权证为在未来以 120 块卖出该股票的权利，
以上就是价内权证；
如果另一时刻该股票价格变为 60 元，则以上认购权证为价外权证，
如果另一时刻该股票价格变为 140 元，则以上认沽权证为价外权证，
这个过程也可以倒过来。

　　价内权证和价外权证可以相互转换，这被称为价外权证的时间价值；而其行权价格被称为立即行权的内在价值（负的价值）。因此：价外权证的价格 = 立即行权的内在价值 + 时间价值。

　　在权证交易的最后一日，权证的时间价值已经耗尽，只剩下负的价值，因此是没有任何价值的。

　　然而，实际情况是，这种 1 厘钱都不值的价外权证在末日交易的时候，盘中还是会出现 0.1 元的非理性高成交价。这被称为“权证的末日疯狂”

博傻理论的应用

　　分辨博傻游戏已经开始——博傻游戏的开始条件：

1. 快速交易

2. 交易量大

3. 流动性高

　　指导理性投资意识：

1. 长期持有的资产泡沫风险，就是可能将击鼓传花的最后一棒停在自己手上；

2. 不可照搬价值投资理念；

3. 尽量避免方量的股票，因为股价高估可能更严重。

Reading News: Stress, exhaustion and guilt: modern parenting

Stress, exhaustion and guilt: modern parenting

from the New York Times

Questions:

1. “全职母亲”用英文怎么表达？
2. “放养式父母”在文中是怎么表达的？
3. Have the 'intensive parenting' really changed the children's future?

Parenthood in the United States has become much more demanding than it used to be.

parenting: 育儿，养育儿女，教养子女
parenting skills: 养儿育女技巧
good parenting: 教养有方
poor parenting: 教养无方

Parenthood: 父母身份，为人父母
hood 的三种加法：

1. 加在人或动物后面：表示某种身份或时期
   如：fatherhood 父亲（身份）/为人父，motherhood 母亲（身份）/为人母
   childhood 童年（时期），manhood 成年（时期）
2. 加在形容词后面：表示某种性质
   如：falsehood 虚假性，likelyhood 可能性
3. 加在职位/领域/团体后面：表示全体成员、集合体
   如：priesthood 神职人员们，neighbourhood 邻居街坊

demanding: 要求高的、严苛的

Over just a couple of generations, parents have greatly increased the amount of time, attention and money they put into raising children. Mothers who work outside the home spend just as much time tending their children as stay-at-home mothers did in the 1970s.

While this kind of intensive parenting — constantly teaching and monitoring children — has been the norm for upper-middle-class parents since the 1990s, new research shows that people across class divides now consider it the best way to raise children, even if they don’t have the resources to enact it.

intensive: 密集（而强烈的）的，与名词连用构成形容词
如：labor-intensive 劳动密集的
calculating-intensive 计算密集的
energy-intensive industry 能源密集型工业
intense: 强烈（但未必集中）的

the norm: 常态

divide: 隔阂，分歧，差异，分水岭
new political divide 新的政治分歧
the divide between rich and poor countries 穷国和富国之间的隔阂
The mountain is the divide between the two rivers 这座山峰是这两条河流的分水岭
people across class divides: 不同阶层的人们

enact: 使实施，通常是法规法案提案

There are signs of a backlash, led by so-called free-range parents, but social scientists say the relentlessness of modern-day parenting has a powerful motivation: economic anxiety. For the first time, it’s as likely as not that American children will be less prosperous than their parents. For parents, giving children the best start in life has come to mean doing everything they can to ensure that their children can climb to a higher class, or at least not fall out of the one they were born into.

backlash: a strong negetive action by a large number of people
a public backlash against racism
to spark an international backlash

free-range: 放养的，土养的
土鸡蛋 free-range eggs，土鸡 free-range chickens

relentlessness: never-ending 不间断的, harsh or inflexable 残酷无情的

for the first time: 首次出现，如果在句首，则表示后面引出的内容是首次出现的

as likely as not: very probably 很有可能

Experts agree that investing in children is a positive thing — they benefit from time with their parents, stimulating activities and supportive parenting styles. But it’s also unclear how much of children’s success is actually determined by parenting.

stimulating: = interesting

supportive: 给予支持的

“It’s still an open question whether it’s the parenting practices themselves that are making the difference, or is it simply growing up with college-educated parents in an environment that’s richer in many dimensions?” said Liana Sayer, a sociologist at the University of Maryland.

open question: 开放问题，悬而未决的问题

make the difference: 产生影响，起作用

Questions:

1. “全职母亲”用英文怎么表达？
2. “放养式父母”在文中是怎么表达的？
3. Have the 'intensive parenting' really changed the children's future?

Reviews:

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速记：服务器上应用的缓存管理和数据变更管理

服务器上应用的缓存管理和数据变更管理

服务器上应用的缓存管理

服务器上应用的数据需要缓存, 因为缓存读取速度相对硬盘较快

数据库一般都有实现自己的缓存层, 为什么不直接用数据库的缓存?

因为

1. 数据库的缓存是属于底层缓存, 所以
2. 数据库的缓存有自己的结构和粒度 (什么结构和粒度?), 因此
3. 数据库的缓存可能无法满足应用层的需求 (举例?)
4. 内存的缓存可以根据应用需要, 定制化缓存结构和缓存粒度, 比如
5. 内存的缓存可以采用 k-v 结构, 缓存粒度可以细到某行数据甚至某行中的某个数据 (数据库可能是按表或页来缓存, 为的是提供普遍适用的性能)

所以服务器应用需要实现自己的缓存层, 也就是要有缓存管理

缓存管理包括:

1. 可按需指定不同的缓存后端
2. 可按需手动设定缓存内容
3. 可按需读取缓存内容

服务器上应用的数据管理

服务器上应用的数据变更需要管理, 因为业务上需要数据变更是可管理的 (举例?)

注: 需要数据变更管理的数据可能在缓存里, 也可能在数据库里

选择 flux 作为数据变更管理模式是因为

1. flux 在前端状态管理(实质是数据变更管理)应用时间长且广泛, 是经过时间和实践考验的
2. flux 存在多个实现, 如 redux, 可直接应用于 nodejs 后端

服务器上缓存管理和数据管理的结合

服务器上应用的缓存管理和应用的数据管理需要结合, 因为需要数据变更管理的数据可能存放在缓存里接受缓存管理

如何结合 redux 和 缓存管理器?

可以参照 immutable 的做法, 它把 state 封装成 immutable state

同理, 我们也可以把 state 或 immutable state 封装成 cached state 或 cached immutable state

【速记】关于 redux 的 selector

Redux中，selector的“名声”不如action、reducer响亮，但selector其实非常有用。selector是用于从state中获取所需数据的函数，通常在connect的第一个参数 mapStateToProps中使用。例如，我们在AuthorContainer.js中根据作者id获取作者详情信息，不使用selector的话，可以这么写：

//文件名：AuthorContainer.js

//省略无关代码

function mapStateToProps(state, props) {
 return {
   author: state.authors[props.authorId],
 };
}

export default connect(mapStateToProps, mapDispatchToProps)(AuthorContainer);

这个例子中，因为逻辑很简单，直接获取author看起来没什么问题，但当获取状态的逻辑变得复杂时，需要通过一个函数来获取，这个函数就是一个selector。selector是可以复用的，不同的容器组件，只要获取状态的逻辑相同，就可以复用同样的selector。所以，selector不能直接定义在某个容器组件中，而应该定义在其关联领域所在的模块中，这个例子需要定义在authors.js中。

——摘自 Redux进阶系列3：如何设计action、reducer、selector

解释：
所以 selector 主要用途就是可复用，也可以理解成解耦
在业务扩展的时候，只需要修改相应的 selector

其他引用：

---

getUser is not a reducer, it is indeed a selector, that is, a function that knows how to extract a specific piece of data from the store.

Selectors provide an additional layer such that if you altered your store structure and all of a sudden your users were no longer at state.entities.users but instead at state.users.objects.entities (or whatever) then you only need to update the getUser selector and not every place in your app where you were making a reference to the old location.

That makes them particularly handy when it comes to refactoring your Redux store.

——from What are selectors in redux?

---

By importing the store into a saga file, you're creating a circular dependency, and that could cause problems in the app.

——from What's the point of the select effect in redux-saga?

---

...
—— from redux saga selectors, how do I access state from a saga?

Reading News: China’s about to rediscover Peppa Pig

China’s about to rediscover Peppa Pig

Questions:

1. Who is making money after 'What is Pei Qi''s going viral?
2. 文中出现了哪些关于“电影宣传片”的英文表达？
3. What change have been made in fortunes of Peppa Pig?

from The BloomBerg

A promotional clip for a movie featuring Peppa Pig has gone viral, earning the brand—previously more popular among city-based children—new fans in rural Chinese regions. Shares in the production company behind the show, Entertainment One, rallied the most in about four months in London trading.

promotional: intend to advertise something 推广的，促销的

feture: 塑造（人物，角色），以……为卖点

city-based/urban & rural
城里的 & 乡村的

rally: begin to recover or improve after being weak
恢复，回升，（股票）止跌回升
The team played badly in the first half of the game but rallied in the second.
Markets began to rally worldwide.

It’s a remarkable change in fortunes for television’s most famous hog. In May last year, Peppa Pig morphed into a symbol when its popularity on online platforms saw it associated with “shehuiren”—a slang word spurring grown-up fans to link the show to rap music, while some even got tattoos of the character.

remarkable: unsual or suprising and therefore deserve attention or prising

fortune: 巨款，~s 命运

morph into: （质的）转变成为，变形为
The prince was morphed into a frog.

see: 遭受，遭遇

spur: 刺激，激励，鞭策，策（马）前行
Lower taxes would spur the investment help economic growth.

The movie teaser released Thursday, in the lead up to the Chinese New Year holiday, shows a rural man’s attempt to discover what his city-raised granddaughter means when she says “Pei Qi" —“Peppa Pig” in Chinese. After a failed attempt to paint a farm pig red, he adapts an old ventilation fan to make it look like the character, pleasing the awaiting child.

teaser: 预告片，先导片
同义词 trailer

in the lead up to: = in the period before 在……之前
lead-up: 前奏，前面一段时间
the lead-up to the wedding
the lead-up to the election

adapt A to B: 把A改造成B

please: 取悦

await: 等待
比 wait 正式，而且是及物动词
await someone = wait for someone

After stocks tied to Peppa soared in Asia overnight, sentiment around Entertainment One shares was given a further boost when U.K. toymaker Character Group Plc highlighted the brand’s strength in a trading update. Entertainment One rose 5.2 percent on Friday, the most since Sept. 27.

soar: 高飞，猛增，骤升
A bird soars into the sky.
The price f petrol soared in recent weeks.

sentiment: 情绪，观点，意见
口语：My sentiments exactly = I agree

boost: n. 改善，提高，增强，推动
give a boost
receive a boost

Plc: Public limited company

Questions:

1. Who is making money after 'What is Pei Qi''s going viral?
2. 文中出现了哪些关于“电影宣传片”的英文表达？
3. What change have been made in fortunes of Peppa Pig?

Reviews:

1. --

Reading News: Why (some) humans are born to have a beer belly

Why (some) humans are born to have a beer belly

from the Bloomberg

Questions:

1. What are the two different type of fat mentioned in this article?
2. What is the meaning of 'picture' in this article?
3. “冠心病”如何用英语表达？

Scientific literature on excess weight and health is expanding along with global waistlines, and yet, it's hard to find a solid, coherent scientific explanation for why some people get fat and others don't, and why some overweight people get Type 2 diabetes and heart disease and others don't.

literature: 可以指文学，也可以指文献

waistline: 腰围

coherent: 连贯一致的，条理清楚的
The man was almost incoherent with fear.

Last week, an evolutionary biologist published a sweeping picture of human fat and health in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

sweeping: 影响广泛的，全面的
sweeping reforms / changes

picture: 描述
The writer paints a gloomy picture of the domestic economy.

The biologist, Mary Jane West-Eberhard of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Costa Rica, has focused her work on understanding biological variation.

focus her work on: 致力于

Sometimes individuals with the same genes can show dramatic differences. She proposes that the same biological principle can explain why humans come in quite different shapes. Some people put on so-called visceral fat, surrounding vital organs, while others put on so-called subcutaneous fat on the limbs, hips and elsewhere. This makes a big difference in health because recent studies show it's the visceral fat that's associated with Type 2 diabetes and heart disease.

dramatic: very great and suprising

come: = become

visceral: 发自肺腑的，内脏的

subcutaneous: sub cutaneous 皮下的

She looked into visceral fat—also known as the omentum, a part of the immune system. It wraps around the vital organs and protects them from infection. But what's protective early in life can have a downside later. Our natural immune response often involves inflammation, and that has been associated with Type 2 diabetes and coronary heart disease.

omentum: 网膜，内脏脂肪也被称作网膜

inflammation: 炎症

coronary: 冠状的
coronary heart disease 冠心病

Analyses like West-Eberhard's paper might change the way we see our fellow humans. What makes a person with gorgeous, enviable curves different from someone with an unhealthy-looking gut? It's not necessarily that one is more "out of shape" or less self-controlled.

Questions:

1. What are the two different type of fat mentioned in this article?
2. What is the meaning of 'picture' in this article?
3. “冠心病”如何用英语表达？

Reviews:

1. --

行为交易策略：基本原理

行为交易策略：基本原理

行为交易策略概述

　　行为交易策略的根本目的：在不增加风险的情况下，获得更多的盈利。

　　行为交易策略的关键因素：异象因子。

　　行为交易策略就是基于异象因子制定的、实现收益风险最大化的工具。

异象因子的寻找与检验——行为交易策略的构建步骤

如何寻找异象因子

　　异象因子常来源于朴素的投资经验，但是也要通过检验，避免陷入“神奇式思考”的认知偏差。

例如：

1. 你可能会觉得分红多的股票投资收益较好，那么“高分红”就是一个“特征”，就可能成为异象因子；
2. 你可能会觉得雾霾少的地区上市公司股票较好，那么“雾霾少”也是一个“特征”，可能成为异象因子；
3. 你可能还会觉得有些行业的股票比较好，那么行业也能成为一个“特征”乃至异象因子。
4. 国际著名行为金融基金 LSV 曾用“股价短期惯性动量因子”、“股票估值低廉价值因子”制定策略取得较好收益。

需知：没有经过检验的“特征”可能只是承担了风险所以才产生相应的超额收益，或者只是少数偶然事件之一。

如何检验异象因子

　　异象因子的检验目标就是：排除待检策略中的风险后，该策略仍能获得稳健收益。

　　异象因子的一般检验步骤：

1. 把市场上的所有股票按照待检验“特征”进行排序

2. 把排序好的股票分成 N 等分组（N = 10、20、50、100、...）

比如 N=10，则因子最小的 10% 的股票为第一组，因子最大的 10% 的股票为第十组

3. 构建对冲组合

买入低估的那一个等分组，卖出高估的那一个等分组。
以公司规模为例，假设 N=10，既然认为小公司股票收益较好，那就买入第一个分组的股票，卖出第十个分组的股票。

4. 检查组合风险

观察以该“特征”排序而构建的对冲组合，买入端和卖出端收益上的差异，是不是因为风险而产生的。
具体是使用因子模型

Reading News: The hidden networking gap between men and women

The hidden networking gap between men and women

Questions:

1. What supports the main point of this article?
2. How to understand "otherwise" which is a adverb?
3. Why does the author say women would be less efficient than men on work social connections?

It’s been said that it’s not what you know but who you know. And there is a long history of men getting to positions of power by leveraging their connections. Now, a new study published in the journal Human Relations suggests it’s not just because men have more access to power and face less bias (although that certainly plays a role), it’s also because men and women build their networks differently. According to the study, women often hesitate to ask for help because they don’t want to “exploit” their network and they’re too modest.

it’s not what you know but who you know: 强调句，句末省略了 that matters

leverage: 杠杆，像杠杆那样利用（撬动）

connections: 人际关系，人脉

exploit: 压榨，剥削，利用（贬义）
Homeworkers can easily be exploited by employers.

When women seek a mentor, the study says, they tend to look for someone they want to be friends with rather than someone they can learn from. Studies have shown women aren’t getting the tough feedback they need to move ahead. The best mentors will push, dare, and confront mentees, and challenge them to take on projects they might otherwise avoid.

mentor: 导师（名词），指导/引导（动词）
She mentored troubled kids. 她曾经做过问题儿童的引导。

dare: 激（某人做某事）
dare sb to do sth

confront: 对峙，面对，~ sb with sth 与某人对峙某事
Maoxi confront Lala with her suspicions. 毛西向拉拉摊牌它的怀疑

challenge sb to do sth: 激励某人做某事

otherwise: 别样地，以另外的方式

Men, on the other hand, look to form alliances. Men are willing to do business with anyone, even someone they don’t necessarily like, as long as that person can help them achieve their goals. Men understand that this is a work relationship that can be dissolved when it’s no longer convenient, not a long-term friendship.

alliance: 联盟，同盟
form alliance 结盟
ally 盟友

dissolve: 解除

“I think men are socialized from the get-go to understand that mixing business and friendship is what you do” to get ahead, says Rachel Thomas, president of LeanIn.org. “We, as women, aren’t as comfortable doing that.”

from the get-go: = from the very beginning

socialize: 交往，交际
socialize sb: 是某人合群，使某人被社会接纳

get ahead: = move ahead

Questions:

1. What supports the main point of this article?
2. How to understand "otherwise" which is a adverb?
3. Why does the author say women would be less efficient than men on work social connections?

Reviews:

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How to Win Friends and Influence People - Chapter1.2

How to Win Friends and Influence People - Chapter1.2

If You Want to Gather Over Honey, Don't Kick Over the Beehive

You will find examples of the futility of criticism bristling on a thousand pages of history, Take, for example, the famous quarrel between Theodore Roosevelt and President Taft—a quarrel that split the Republican party, put Woodrow Wilson in the White House, and wrote bold, luminous lines across the First World War and altered the flow of history.

Let's review the facts quickly.

When Theodore Roosevelt stepped out of the White House in 1908, he supported Taft, who was elected President.

Then Theodore Roosevelt went off to Africa to shoot lions.

When he returned, he exploded.

He denounced Taft for his conservatism, *(who )*tried to secure the nomination for a third term himself, formed the Bull Moose party, and all but demolished the G.O.P.

third term: 第三任期。在美国宪法22修正案之前，总统可以竞选连任超过两届。这里 Taft 总统已经担任两任，所以 Roosevelt 说他在的保守是为了确保在第三任期的竞选中获得提名。

In the election that followed, William Howard Taft and the Republican party carried only two states — Vermont and Utah.

The most disastrous defeat the party had ever known.

Theodore Roosevelt blamed Taft, but did President Taft blame himself?

Of course not, with tears in his eyes, Taft said: "I don't see how I could have done any differently from what I have."

Who was to blame? Roosevelt or Taft? Frankly, I don't know, and I don't care.

The point I am trying to make is that all of Theodore Roosevelt's criticism didn't persuade Taft that he was wrong.

It merely made Taft strive to justify himself and to reiterate with tears in his eyes: "I don't see how I could have done any differently from what I have."

Or, take the Teapot Dome oil scandal.

It kept the newspapers ringing with indignation in the early 1920s.

It rocked the nation!

Within the memory of living men, nothing like it had ever happened before in American public life.

Here are the bare facts of the scandal:

Albert B. Fall, secretary of the interior in Harding's cabinet, was entrusted with the leasing of government oil reserves at Elk Hill and Teapot Dome oil reserves that had been set aside for the future use of the Navy.

Did secretary Fall permit competitive bidding? No sir.

He handed the fat, juicy contract outright to his friend Edward L. Doheny.

And what did Doheny do?

He gave Secretary Fall what he was pleased to call a "loan" of one hundred thousand dollars.

Then, in a high-handed manner, Secretary Fall ordered United States Marines into the district to drive off competitors whose adjacent wells were sapping oil out of the Elk Hill reserves.

in a high-hand manner: 采取高压手段，也就是 ordered U.S. Marines into the district(Teaport Dome Oil Reserves)

These competitors, driven off their ground at the ends of guns and bayonets, rushed into court—and blew the lid off the Teapot Dome scandal.

at the ends of guns and bayonets: 于刀枪直指之下（在刀枪的末端）

A stench arose so vile that it ruined the Harding Administration, nauseated an entire nation, threatened to wreck the Republican party, and put Albert B. Fall behind prison bars.

Fall was condemned viciously — condemned as few men in public life have ever been.

Did he repent? Never!

Years later Herbert Hoover intimated in a public speech that President Harding's death had been due to mental anxiety and worry because a friend had betrayed him.

When Mrs. Fall heard that, she sprang from her chair, she wept, she shook her fists at fate and screamed: "What! Harding betrayed by Fall? No! My husband never betrayed anyone.

This whole house full of gold would not tempt my husband to do wrong.

He is the one who has been betrayed and led to the slaughter and crucified."

There you are; human nature in action, wrongdoers, blaming everybody but themselves.

We are all like that.

So when you and I are tempted to criticize someone tomorrow, let's remember Al Capone, "Two Gun" Crowley and Albert Fall.

Let's realize that criticisms are like homing pigeons.

They always return home.

Let's realize that the person we are going to correct and condemn will probably justify himself or herself, and condemn us in return;

or, like the gentle Taft, will say: "I don't see how I could have done any differently from what I have."

On the morning of April 15, 1865, Abraham Lincoln lay dying in a hall bedroom of a cheap lodging house directly across the street from Ford's Theater, where John Wilkes Booth had shot him.

Lincoln's long body lay stretched diagonally across a sagging bed that was too short for him.

A cheap reproduction of Rosa Bonheur's famous painting The Horse Fair hung above the bed, and a dismal gas jet flickered yellow light.

As Lincoln lay dying, Secretary of War Stanton said, "There lies the most perfect ruler of men that the world has ever seen."

What was the secret of Lincoln's success in dealing with people?

I studied the life of Abraham Lincoln for ten years and devoted all of three years to writing and rewriting a book entitled Lincoln the Unknown.

I believe I have made as detailed and exhaustive a study of Lincoln's personality and home life as it is possible for any being to make.

I made a special study of Lincoln's method of dealing with people.

Did he indulge in criticism? Oh, yes.

As a young man in the Pigeon Creek Valley of Indiana, he not only criticized but he wrote letters and poems ridiculing people and dropped these letters on the country roads where they were sure to be found.

One of these letters aroused resentments that burned for a lifetime.

aroused resentments that burned for a lifetime: （其中一封）燃起了一生都无法磨灭的怒火

Even after Lincoln had become a practicing lawyer in Springfield, Illinois, he attacked his opponents openly in letters published in the newspapers.

But he did this just once too often.

once too often: 太多的一次，即多次，频繁

In the autumn of 1842 he ridiculed a vain, pugnacious politician by the name of James Shields.

vain: 形容人为自负的、虚荣的
pugnacious: =aggressive

Lincoln lamed him through an anonymous letter published in Springfield Journal.

lame: 愿意为使跛、使残废，这里的意思可能是让某人的名声受损（声名扫地）

The town roared with laughter.

Shields, sensitive and proud, boiled with indignation.

He found out who wrote the letter, leaped on his horse, started after Lincoln, and challenged him to fight a duel.

Lincoln didn't want to fight.

He was opposed to dueling, but he couldn't get out of it and save his honor.

He was given the choice of weapons.

Since he had very long arms, he chose cavalry broadswords and took lessons in sword fighting from a West Point graduate;

and, on the appointed day, he and Shields met on a sandbar in the Mississippi River, prepared to fight to the death;

but, at the last minute, their seconds interrupted and stopped the duel.

That was the most lurid personal incident in Lincoln's life.

It taught him an invaluable lesson in the art of dealing with people.

Never again did he write an insulting letter.

Never again did he ridicule anyone.

And from that time on, he almost never criticized anybody for anything.

Reading News: Tech industry expo opens portal to tomorrow

Tech industry expo opens portal to tomorrow

from The NewYork Times

Questions:

1. Which of the high-tech products have been prohibited on the CES convention?
2. What's the meaning of "bullish"?
3. How virtual assistant products manufacturers deal with the more and more complex market of smart home?

The show must go on.

expo: exposition 展览会、博览会
expo 2010 Shanghai China 2019上海展览会

portal: （精致的）大门

The show must go on.: 来自演艺界的谚语，表示不管出现什么情况艺人都要继续表演
经常的引申义是无论人生多么艰难生活都要继续
这里用这句的背景是，去年年底美股经历大跌，其中科技股表现十年来最差，被称为“科技股领跌”

That sentiment couldn’t have been stronger this week at CES, the largest consumer electronics convention in the country. The conference, which brought more than 180, 000 people to Las Vegas, was a reminder of what the tech industry is best at: being optimistic about itself.

sentiment: 情绪，（基于情感的）观点、看法
national sentiment 民族情绪
pulic sentiment 公众情绪

convention: 大会，会议，集会
conference: 大型、正式的会议或研讨会
conference 相对正式，并且带有讨论议题的功能

a reminder of: = remind someone about

is best at: be good at 最高级

being optimistic about itself: 自我感觉良好
背景：美股大跌，科技股领跌

The conference offered a peek at the year’s hottest tech trends, including artificially intelligent virtual assistants, next-generation wireless networks and connected cars.

connected cars: 互联汽车

Front and center at CES was the battle between virtual assistants. Aaron Emigh, chief executive of Brilliant, which makes smart home products that work with Alexa, Google Assistant and Siri, said it was critical for virtual assistants to work together, not against one another, because the smart home was already too complex, with products like light switches, thermostats and cameras coming from different brands.

front and center: 重要的，中心的

Wireless carriers and chipmakers highlighted 5G, the next-generation cellular network arriving this year in a small number of cities with data speeds so zippy that devices can download an entire movie in seconds.

wireless carrier: 无线运营商
a telecoms carrier 电话运营商

cellular network: 蜂窝网络

zippy: 敏捷的，精力充沛的
与 fast 区别在于是精力充沛的快

Car manufacturers like Mercedes-Benz and BMW showed off concepts of autonomous vehicles powered by AI and 5G wireless connections. Smarter cars with features like built-in voice assistants to help people use maps, play music or get a sports update without taking their eyes off the road are available now.

show off: 炫耀，得意地介绍
show-off 爱炫耀的人
She only buy that car to show off
She is such a show-off.

autonomous: 自主的，自治的
autonomous learners
autonomous regions 自治区

sports update: 这里的 update 是最新资讯的意思

Matt Strauss, a Comcast executive, was especially bullish about the year ahead. He said just about everything announced at CES required an Internet connection, so that’s the last thing that people would cut off.

executive: 行政主管

bullish: 看涨的行情，乐观的，充满信心的
a bullish market
I'm very bullish about your prospects.

the year ahead: 下一年，新的一年

“It’s become like oxygen, ” he said.

Questions:

1. Which of the high-tech products have been prohibited on the CES convention?
2. What's the meaning of "bullish"?
3. How virtual assistant products manufacturers deal with the more and more complex market of smart home?

Reviews:

1. --

何帆报告2018-2019：引言——历史的反转规律与影响未来反转的五个变量

何帆报告2018-2019：引言——历史的反转规律与窥见未来反转的五个变量

• 历史的反转规律
• 窥见未来历史反转的五个变量
  • 中美关系
  • 工业化新旧关系
  • 城市化模式
  • 技术创新路线
  • 全民价值观

历史的反转规律

　　2018年，我们看到**经济遇到的各种挑战：中美贸易战愈演愈烈，**经济增长速度逐年放缓，**股市不断下跌，消费降级，房价下跌，据说外资撤出，传言民企跑路，……。

　　种种迹象表明，**正处在一个剧烈转型的时代：旧的路标已经消失，新的秩序还未出现。

　　转型的挑战让我们不禁感到焦虑与担忧，其带来的社会变化之快也让我们感到不安与无助。

　　凡此种种，我们可以依据什么规律来纵观、从而采取什么态度来看待、进而选择什么视角来分析和应对这些转型和挑战？

　　答案就是：历史的反转规律、辞旧迎新的态度、五个变量的视角。

历史的反转规律例子
　　二战结束，人们普遍对经济前景悲观：因为战争结束意味着战时的军工订单就没了，同时大批退伍军人复原会出现大量失业，工厂关门和失业潮的双重打击可能带来严重的经济衰退——一战之后也确实如此。

　　结果是反转的：二战之后的20世纪50~60年代，反而成为美国历史上经济增长最快的20年，被称为“资本主义的黄金时代”。

　　“盛极而衰，否极泰来”，这就是历史的反转规律。

　　于是在2018年，我们除了焦虑与担忧、不安与无助，还多了一种面对态度，那就是：我们曾经觉得成功的模式已经逐渐过时，但我们正在觉得绝望的局势也可能在不知不觉中发生着变化——新的力量很有可能正在萌芽，并经历着峰回路转，最终走向柳暗花明。

窥见未来历史反转的五个变量

　　这5个变量是何帆在过去一年里亲身亲寻得到的：他走访了**20多个省市，巡游了10多个国家，拜访了创业者、汽车工程师、电竞选手、小学校长等，沙里淘金，从中寻觅到这5个关键变量。

　　这5个变量是：中美关系、工业化新旧关系、城市化模式、技术创新路线、全民价值观。^注1

　　这5个变量如何窥见未来历史的关键走向（拐点、反转）？

---

注1：何帆原文对这5个变量的命名分别是：中美博弈、新旧融合、自下而上、技术赋能、重建社群。这里为了自己更好地理解，所以名称稍作修改，但内涵不变。

中美关系

　　当中美关系这个变量发生什么变化的时候，历史会迎来它的转折点？

　　答案是：当中美关系由冲突转变为合作的时候。

　　而当前的局势是冲突：美国有一批全球化“受害者”想要下车，不想继续搞全球化、害怕技术进步，他们的声音会持续影响美国国策；同时，**有一批全球化受益者刚挤上车，他们对全球化和技术进步的态度相对更为积极乐观。

　　那什么时候冲突的局势会向合作转变？

　　答案是：中美两国共同意识到，有一个必须由中美两个全球最大的经济体联手才能应对的挑战，并由此构建中美合作新基础。

　　那什么挑战才有可能触动中美两国神经，并引发共同意识呢？

　　答案有可能是：人类步入人工智能社会过程中引发的诸多问题。（具体什么问题还没说）

　　所以结论是：全球化和技术进步方面中美冲突在所难免，只有关乎人类命运的挑战才能将中美团结在一起，彼时历史将迎来转机。

工业化新旧关系

　　**工业化的发动机还没有熄火，**制造业正在经历巨大的产业转型，其中的核心就是新旧融合——新兴技术与传统产业的融合。

　　当新旧关系（新兴产业与传统产业之间的关系）这个变量发生什么变化的时候，历史会迎来它的转折点？

　　答案是：当新兴产业和传统产业共同意识到，必须彼此融合才能真正实现创新、成功转型的时候。

　　而当前大多数人的态度是：可能高估了新兴产业的颠覆性，同时低估了传统产业的自我革新能力。

　　那当前少数人推动反转的现实状况怎么样了呢？

　　何帆会在报告中让我们看到：互联网企业如何造车，本以为可以颠覆汽车行业格局，最后却发现如果不虚心向传统汽车行业学习就造不出优秀的新能源汽车；以及老牌制造业企业如何学习互联网打法，而且比互联网行业革新得更彻底。

　　所以结论是：新旧融合的工业化模式是未来趋势，当前已经有一部分人意识到新旧产业应该彼此融合并加以实践，历史正在发生反转。

城市化模式

　　**城市化的发动机也还没有熄火。（数据）

　　当城市化模式这个变量发生什么变化的时候，历史会迎来它的转折点？

　　答案是：当越来越多的城市化进程由原来的自上而下走向自下而上的发展模式的时候。

　　而当前大多数人对城市化的态度还是自上而下。（待解什么是自上而下）

　　那当前少数人推动反转的现实状况怎么样了呢？

　　何帆会在报告中让我们看到：东莞、义乌这样的城市正在践行未来城市化的发展模式，也就是塑造“多核城市”的新型城市形态；以及借助互联网的传播，黄金位置已经不再是唯一的重要因素，偏僻的巷子里也会出现仰慕者众多的“网红”时尚小店，正在打破以往房地产“位置至上”的规律。

　　所以结论是：自下而上的城市化模式是未来趋势，当前已经有一部分人正在积极探索并加以实践，历史正在发生反转。

技术创新路线

　　国家未来发展离不开技术创新。

　　当技术创新路线这个变量发生什么变化的时候，历史会迎来它的转折点？

　　答案是：当越来越多的人意识到应用技术创新才是符合**发展的技术路线的时候。

　　而当前大多数人对**技术创新路线的观点是发展核心技术。

　　那当前少数人推动反转的现实状况怎么样了呢？

　　何帆会在报告中让我们看到：**荒漠的边缘地带，无人机技术正在发起一场“应用场景革命”；以及**庞大的市场，连同我们的工程师红利，会让我们在技术发展的道路上蹚出一条全新的“群众路线”。

　　所以结论是：应用技术创新是**未来趋势，当前已经有一部分人正在积极探索并加以实践，历史正在发生反转。

全民价值观

　　当全民价值观这个变量发生什么变化的时候，历史会迎来它的转折点？

　　答案是：当人们的价值观由个人主义向社群主义转变的时候。

　　而当前大多数人还在推崇过去**经济高速发展过程中产生的“狼性文化”——其背后是个人主义的崛起。

　　那当前少数人推动反转的现实状况怎么样了呢？

　　何帆会在报告中让我们看到：不少社区的人们在互相帮助、努力重建社群；以及一所偏僻农村小学基于社群的新型教育模式；还有在“丰裕社会”中人们的幸福感不仅取决于个人的财富积累，而是公共生活和公共服务——也就是“社会资本”，一种比“实物资本”和“人力资本”更为重要的财富。

　　所以结论是：社群主义已经在**大地上萌芽，历史正在发生反转。

行为金融学概述：概念与框架

行为金融学概述：概念与框架

行为金融学是什么

　　行为金融学（behavioral finance，BF）是金融学、心理学、行为学、社会学等学科相交叉的边缘学科，力图揭示金融市场的非理性行为和决策规律。

　　行为金融理论认为，证券的市场价格并不只由证券内在价值所决定，还在很大程度上受到投资者主体行为的影响，即投资者心理与行为对证券市场的价格决定及其变动具有重大影响。它是和传统金融学中的有效市场假说（efficient market hypothesis,EMH）相对应的一种学说。

行为金融学的框架

　　行为金融学的主要内容可分为套利限制（limits of arbitrage）和心理学两部分。

　　心理学内容又包含三种金融活动中的行为过程：

• 认知过程；

• 情绪过程；

• 意志过程。

　　其中：

• 认知过程包括一系列的信息处理过程中的认知过程偏差，从信息的收集、加工、输出再到反馈；如：

  • ⁰⁵信息收集阶段的易记性偏差、首位效应、末位效应等；

  • ⁰⁶信息加工阶段的代表性偏差；

  • ⁰⁷信息输出阶段的过度自信；

  • ⁰⁸信息反馈阶段的自我归因、后见之明、认知失调、确认性偏差、神奇式思考等。

• 情绪过程反映了个人投资者在决策过程中（即信息输出过程中），对盈利和亏损的一般心理反应；如：

  • ⁰⁹参考点依赖；

  • ¹⁰盈利时偏恶风险、亏损时偏好风险；

  • ¹⁰损失厌恶；

  • ¹⁰赌场钱效应；

  • ¹¹概率幻觉（错判决策权重）；

  • ¹²狭隘框架（单看个别投资而轻视组合作用、频繁清点资产）；

  • ¹³心理账户；

  • ²²股权溢价之谜；

  　　非理性投资者受这些心理反应的影响从而做出决策。（需知：⁰⁹人是如何做出决策的？）

  注：¹⁴理性投资立场见 14 讲。

• 意志过程反映了个人投资者在决策过程中，接受外界影响并产生行为的一般规律。如：

  • ²⁰羊群效应

  非理性投资者同样受这些外界影响从而做出决策。

　　由此，产生了一些典型的交易错误：

• ^15-16分散化不足

• ¹⁷过度交易

• ¹⁸卖出行为偏差

• ¹⁹买入行为偏差

• ²⁰羊群效应

　　据此，行为金融学提出三种理论，即：

• ^05-08人的有限理论：研究人的非理性行为；

• ^09-11前景理论：研究参考点、风险态度、决策权重等；

• ²¹大盘可预测理论：认为大盘长期是可预测的；

• ^23-24量价关系理论：Miller 假说、博傻理论

　　以及，基于异象的投资策略：

• ²⁵行为投资策略概述

• ²⁶异象概述

• ²⁷规模溢价（小盘股异象）和 价值溢价（价值股异象）

• ²⁸长期反转 与 惯性效应

• ²⁹应得异象 与 盈余公告后漂移

Reading news: Described as defeated, Islamic State punches back with guerrilla tactics

Described as defeated, Islamic State punches back with guerrilla tactics

from the NewYork Times

Questions:

1. What's the difference between "strategy" and "tactic"?
2. What's the meaning of "leave for dead"?
3. Why do we say that the America is ignoring the lessons the recent history had given?

For three years, terrorists controlled a huge stretch of territory in Iraq and Syria. All but 1 percent of that territory is now gone, which has prompted the White House to describe the Islamic State as “wiped out, ” “absolutely obliterated” and “in its final throes.” But to suggest that ISIS was defeated, as President Donald Trump did when he announced plans to pull U.S. troops out of Syria, is to ignore the lessons of recent history.

punch: to hit somebody or something hard with fist 用拳猛击，打击
a punch in face
punch back: hit back

guerrilla: 游击队员
tactics: the particular method used to achieve something

a stretch of: an area of land or water, especially a long one
a stretch of highway

all but: all except
almost. eg.: The subject was all but forgotten.

prompt: 促使，导致

wipe out: 消灭，彻底摧毁

obliterate: 毁掉，清除（痕迹）
They snoe had boliterated their footprints.

throes: （分娩、死亡或巨大变化时的）阵痛，痛苦挣扎
violent pains, especially at the moment of death
The country was in the throes of revoluntionary change.
in its final throes 奄奄一息，垂死挣扎

pull something/somebody out of ...: 退出，抽出，撤出
to stop being involved in ...

The attack last week by a suicide bomber outside a shawarma restaurant in Manbij, Syria, which killed at least 15 people including four Americans, is one example of how the group still remains a serious, violent threat.

suicide bomber: 自杀式袭击人体炸弹

shawarma: 沙威玛，一种阿拉伯卷饼烤肉

“People make the mistake of thinking that when you lose territory, it’s linear—that they will continue to lose, ” said Seth G. Jones, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

linear: （进展）直线式的，线性的，连贯的
a linear narrative 平铺直叙

“When you lose territory, smart groups shift to guerrilla strategy and tactics, including targeted assassinations, ambushes, raids, bombings, ” he added. “That is how you wear the enemy down.”

shift to

strategy: 战略；策略
相对于 tactic 更为全局，后者通常意为战术

assassinate: 暗杀；刺杀
相对于 murder 前者针对的对象通常是名人或掌权人（如政治人物）
此外前者通常在公共场所进行，后者则为秘密场所
target assassination: 有目的的暗杀，针对某一人群
据报道，ISIS通常暗杀一个地方的政府官员，以此引发人们对于政府安全措施和保护力度的怀疑

ambush: 埋伏，伏击
The soliders set up an ambush on the road.

raid: 突袭
an air raid 空中突袭

wear down: 磨损 -> 消磨……斗志
Looking after a high-spirited child can soon wear a person down.

背景知识：
伊斯兰国成立之初，与国际体系展开的是阵地战，因为他们拥有自己的军队、地盘和行政体系；
但在外界多年的围剿中，伊斯兰国这些引以为傲的东西被摧毁，逐渐沦为了没有地盘的传统恐怖组织；
然而他们并没有收敛，他们用游击战取代了原有的大规模袭击；
因为游击战成本低，频率高，而且难以预防；
并且他们在失去了完整领土之后，选择了一些零散分布的村庄作为小据点；
所以很多专家认为伊斯兰国采取这种游击战术是很难被彻底消灭的；
但是特朗普多次声称他们已经被彻底击败。

Trump’s declaration that ISIS has been defeated is the second time the group has been described this way.

背景知识：
十年前，当时被称为“伊拉克伊斯兰国恐怖组织”也是受到了严重打击；
该组织的领导人还说他们已经快站不住脚了；
美国政府也认为他们确实已经被击溃，于是撤军伊拉克；
然而没过多久，这个组织又死灰复燃，仅仅四年就夺去了大量领土，面积足有一个英国；
所以特朗普这次说ISIS被彻底击溃，显然是没有吸取过去的历史教训。
而且这次美国撤军叙利亚之后，ISIS的武装力量恢复速度非常惊人——

Recent estimates indicate that the Islamic State has more than 20 to 30 times the fighters it had the last time it was left for dead. Although many of its leaders have been killed, the group’s caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and several of his top deputies, are believed to be alive.

leave for dead: to leave one anminal or person that one knows will probaly die instead of trying to help
They hit the dog with their car and left it for dead on the side of the road.

caliph: 哈里发，穆斯林领导人称谓

deputies: 副手，代理人

Questions:

1. What's the difference between "strategy" and "tactic"?
2. What's the meaning of "leave for dead"?
3. Why do we say that the America is ignoring the lessons the recent history had given?

Reviews:

1. --

How to Win Friends and Influence People - Chapter1.3

How to Win Friends and Influence People - Chapter1.3

If You Want to Gather Over Honey, Don't Kick Over the Beehive

Time after time, during the Civil War, Lincoln put a new general at the head of the Army of the Potomac, and each one in turn—McClellan, Pope, Burnside, Hooker, Meade — blundered tragically and drove Lincoln to pacing the floor in despair.

Half the nation savagely condemned these incompetent generals, but Lincoln, "with malice toward none, with charity for all," held his peace.

with malice toward none, with charity for all.:
hold one's peace: keep silent

One of his favorite quotations was "Judge not, that ye be not judged."

"Judge not, that ye be not judged.": 不妄论人者不受妄论

And when Mrs. Lincoln and others spoke harshly of the southern people, Lincoln replied: "Don't criticize them; they are just what we would be under similar circumstances."

If any man ever had occasion to criticize, surely it was Lincoln.

Let's take just one illustration: The Battle of Gettysburg was fought during the first three days of July 1863.

(battle) be fought: (斗争、战争、战役)被打响

During the night of July 4, Lee began to retreat southward while storm clouds deluged the country with rain.

When Lee reached the Potomac with his defeated army, he found a swollen,impassable river in front of him, and a victorious Union Army behind him.

Lee was in a trap. He couldn't escape. Lincoln saw that.

Here was a golden, heaven-sent opportunity — the opportunity to capture Lee's army and end the war immediately.

So, with a surge of high hope, Lincoln ordered Meade not to call a council of war but to attack Lee immediately.

Lincoln telegraphed his orders and then sent a special messenger to Meade demanding immediate action.

And what did General Meade do?

He did the very opposite of what he was told to do.

He called a council of war in direct violation of Lincoln's orders.

He hesitated. He procrastinated. He telegraphed all manner of excuses. He refused point-blank to attack Lee.

point-blank: 直截了当地

Finally the waters receded and Lee escaped over the Potomac with his forces.

Lincoln was furious, "What does this mean?"

Lincoln cried to his son Robert.

"Great God! What does this mean?

We had them within our grasp, and had only to stretch forth our hands and they were ours; yet nothing that I could say or do could make the army move.

Under the circumstances, almost any general could have defeated Lee.

If I had gone up there, I could have whipped him myself."

In bitter disappointment, Lincoln sat down and wrote Meade this letter.

And remember, at this period of his life Lincoln was extremely conservative and restrained in his phraseology.

So this letter coming from Lincoln in 1863 was tantamount to the severest rebuke.

My dear General, I do not believe you appreciate the magnitude of the misfortune involved in Lee's escape.

He was within our easy grasp, and to have closed upon him would, in connection with our other late successes, have ended the war.

As it is, the war will be prolonged indefinitely.

If you could not safely attack Lee last Monday, how can you possibly do so south of the river, when you can take with you very few—no more than two-thirds of the force you then had in hand?

It would be unreasonable to expect and I do not expect that you can now effect much.

Your golden opportunity is gone, and I am distressed immeasurably because of it.

What do you suppose Meade did when he read the letter?

Meade never saw that letter. Lincoln never mailed it.

It was found among his papers after his death.

My guess is — and this is only a guess — that after writing that letter, Lincoln looked out of the window and said to himself, "Just a minute. Maybe I ought not to be so hasty.

It is easy enough for me to sit here in the quiet of the White House and order Meade to attack;

but if I had been up at Gettysburg, and if I had seen as much blood as Meade has seen during the last week, and if my ears had been pierced with the screams and shrieks of the wounded and dying, maybe I wouldn't be so anxious to attack either.

If I had Meade's timid temperament, perhaps I would have done just what he had done.

Anyhow, it is water under the bridge now.

water under the bridge: 过桥流水，比喻无法挽回之事

If I send this letter, it will relieve my feelings, but it will make Meade try to justify himself.

It will make him condemn me.

It will arouse hard feelings, impair all his further usefulness as a commander, and perhaps force him to resign from the army."

So, as I have already said, Lincoln put the letter aside, for he had learned by bitter experience that sharp criticisms and rebukes almost invariably end in futility.

Theodore Roosevelt said that when he, as President, was confronted with a perplexing problem, he used to lean back and look up at a large painting of Lincoln which hung above his desk in the White House and ask himself,

"What would Lincoln do if he were in my shoes? How would he solve this problem?"

The next time we are tempted to admonish somebody, let's pull a five-dollar bill out of our pocket, look at Lincoln's picture on the bill, and ask.

"How would Lincoln handle this problem if he had it?"

Mark Twain lost his temper occasionally and wrote letters that turned the Paper brown.

turned the Paper brown: 把纸张变成棕色（当纸张被点燃烧焦后就会呈现棕色），这里可能是一种比喻，省略了“好像”——（马克吐温偶尔会发脾气，并发泄到信中，）怒火仿佛要把纸张烧焦

For example, he once wrote to a man who had aroused his ire: "The thing for you is a burial permit. You have only to speak and I will see that you get it."

"The thing for you is a burial permit. You have only to speak and I will see that you get it.":
= The thing you need is a burial permit, if only you speak I will make you get it.
你就需要一张埋葬许可证（埋了自己），只要你开口我就弄给你。

On another occasion he wrote to an editor about a proofreader's attempts to "improve my spelling and punctuation."

He ordered: "Set the matter according to my copy hereafter and see that the proofreader retains his suggestions in the mush of his decayed brain."

"Set the matter according to my copy hereafter and see that the proofreader retains his suggestions in the mush of his decayed brain.":
我给的稿子是什么样就是什么样，他的建议不妨留在他那颗烂脑子里得了。

The writing of these stinging letters made Mark Twain feel better.

They allowed him to blow off steam, and the letters didn't do any real harm, because Mark's wife secretly lifted them out of the mail.

blow off steam: 出气，发泄

They were never sent.

Do you know someone you would like to change and regulate and improve?

Good! That is fine. I am all in favor of it, but why not begin on yourself?

From a purely selfish standpoint, that is a lot more profitable than trying to improve others — yes, and a lot less dangerous.

"Don't complain about the snow on your neighbor's roof," said Confucius, "When your own doorstep is unclean."

When I was still young and trying hard to impress people, I wrote a foolish letter to Richard Harding Davis, an author who once loomed large on the literary horizon of America.

I was preparing a magazine article about authors, and I asked Davis to tell me about his method of work.

A few weeks earlier, I had received a letter from someone with this notation at the bottom: "Dictated but not read."

Dictated but not read: 口述整理，未经本人审阅

I was quite impressed. I felt that the writer must be very big and busy and important.

I wasn't the slightest bit busy, but I was eager to make an impression on Richard Harding Davis, so I ended my short note with the words: "Dictated but not read."

He never troubled to answer the letter.

He simply returned it to me with this scribbled across the bottom: "Your bad manners are exceeded only by your bad manners."

"Your bad manners are exceeded only by your bad manners.": 你的行为简直比恶劣还恶劣

True, I had blundered, and perhaps I deserved this rebuke.

But, being human, I resented it.

I resented it so sharply that when I read of the death of Richard Harding Davis ten years later, the one thought that still persisted in my min—I am ashamed to admit—was the hurt he had given me.

the one: = this one

If you and I want to stir up a resentment tomorrow that may rankle across the decades and endure until death, just let us indulge in a little stinging criticism—no matter how certain we are that it is justified.

no matter how certain we are that it is justified:
= no matter how we are certain that it is justified
不论我们有多么确信它（这种批评）是有理的

When dealing with people, let us remember we are not dealing with creatures of logic.

We are dealing with creatures of emotion, creatures bristling with prejudices and motivated by pride and vanity.

速记：有关历史的认知

有关历史的认知

《王烁的2019认知训练营》第2篇读后感

包括：历史怎么研究以及怎么使用

也就是：研究方法 和 使用方法

其中：

研究方法是：以总体史观作为指导，历史学家的技艺
关键在于：历史存在于整体 和 强烈的个人意见

使用方法是：理解后行动

举例：历史学家布洛赫的著作和一生

Reading News: The maturing of the smartphone industry should be celebrated, not lamented

The maturing of the smartphone industry should be celebrated, not lamented

Questions:

1. What's the meaning of "bank" in expression "bank on"
2. What made smartphones the "tool of development in existence"?
3. What do you think is the next transformative technology after the smartphone?

When Apple cut its revenue estimate for the last quarter of 2018 because of unexpectedly slow sales of iPhones, markets convulsed.

muturing: 成熟期
行业周期包括潜伏期、增长期^growing、成熟期^muturing、衰落期

lament: 对…感到悲痛；痛惜；对…表示失望
to feel or express great sadness or disappointment about sb/sth

convulse: （因为痛苦或强烈刺激）抽搐 -> （市场）剧烈震荡
The patient began to convulsed.
Many stock markets convulsed.

Analysts reckon that the number of smartphones sold in 2018 will be slightly lower than in 2017, the industry’s first ever annual decline. All this is terrible news for investors who had banked on continued growth. But step back and look at the bigger picture. That smartphone sales have peaked, and seem to be levelling off at around 1.4bn units a year, is good news for humanity.

reckon: 计算，推算

will: 这里用 will 的原因可能是因为截止至本文发布其具体数据尚处在统计当中，所以这里是“预计将会”

decline: n. 下滑，负增长

bank on: 寄希望于，指望，依赖于
来自 bank 作为动词意为在银行里面开户存钱

step back: 退一步讲

peak: 达到顶峰
Flu activity often peaks in February.

level off/out: （飞机）进入水平飞行 -> （事物）进入稳定状态

People have voted with their wallets to make the smartphone the most successful consumer product in history: nearly 4bn of the 5.5bn adults on the planet now have one. And no wonder. They connect billions of people to the internet’s plethora of information and services. Phones make markets more efficient, compensate for poor infrastructure in developing countries and boost growth. They might be the most effective tool of development in existence.

vote with something: 用什么投票
vote with one's wallet 通过消费行为表示偏好
vote with feet 用脚投票

no wonder: 一点也不奇怪

plethora of: 海量的，极多的，过多的

compensate for: 补偿，弥补
比如这个人的工作能力有待提高，但是她的积极性非常好
Her enthusiasm compensate for her lack of skill. 她的热情足以弥补技能上的缺陷。

tool of development: 泛指可以带来发展的工具

The slowdown does not reflect disenchantment; quite the contrary. It is the result of market saturation. After a decade of rapid adoption, there is much less scope to sell handsets to first-time buyers as so few of them are left. That hits Apple the hardest because, despite a relatively small market share (13% of smartphone users), it captures almost all of the industry’s profits.

disenchantment: 热情的退却，失望

quite the contrary: 正好相反

adoption: 接受，接纳，普及

scope: 机会

despite ...: 尽管……
capture profit: 赚走利润，获取利润

But Apple’s pain is humanity’s gain. The recent slowing of smartphone sales is bad news for the industry, obviously. But for the rest of humanity it is a welcome sign that a transformative technology has become almost universal.

transformative: （彻底）改变的，巨大变化的，革命性的

Questions:

1. What's the meaning of "bank" in expression "bank on"
2. What made smartphones the "tool of development in existence"?
3. What do you think is the next transformative technology after the smartphone?

Reviews:

1. 苹果近期下调了2018年第四季度的营收预期；
2. 这则消息在各大股市造成了震荡；
3. 由此折射出行业大趋势是：智能手机市场已经达到其巅峰期，而且似乎在进入稳定状态（每年14亿台）；
4. 这是一个好的迹象因为：智能手机让人们能够获取到海量的信息和服务，并且弥补了发展**家基建的不足；
5. 最终的结论是：智能手机几乎已经成为一种普遍的革命性技术。

何帆报告2018-2019：大纲

何帆报告2018-2019：大纲

期权知识摘析：Delta、Gamma 和 Delta 中性策略

期权知识摘析：Delta、Gamma和Delta中性策略

什么是 Delta

　　首先要知道期权的定价 C 是关于股价 S 的函数（具体有 Black-Scholes 模型给出）。

　　然后就可以定义 Delta = (△C/△t)/(△S/△t) = △C/△S，目的是衡量股价变化对期权价格的影响，也就反映了期权交易中的方向性风险（小范围内标的价格波动对组合带来的风险）——准确地说，是方向性风险的大小（而转变方向和速率由 Gamma 来描述，它是 Delta 的导数，即 C 的二阶导数）。

什么是 Gamma

（待更）

Delta 的应用——Delta 中性策略

　　Delta 中性策略是构建并调整组合，使组合的整体 Delta 维持在 0 左右的水平，以此规避方向性风险，转而从其它风险因子（如波动率、时间损耗等）中获利（这是基于传统金融学的 风险-收益 模型）。

Gamma 的应用

（待更）

参考

• 对冲的艺术——delta中性交易

Reading News: Saudi thirst for water is creating a toxic brine problem

Saudi thirst for water is creating a toxic brine problem

from The BloomBerg

Questions:

1. What is the seawater desalination(淡化)?
2. What is the meaning of "toxic"?
3. What does toxic effluent have effect on the ecosystem?

Saudi Arabia isn’t just the world’s top crude oil exporter. It’s also the biggest producer of a toxic effluent that’s the byproduct of slaking the desert kingdom’s thirst for water.

brine: （用于腌制的）盐水
olives in brine

crude: 未经加工的
crude oil 原油，crude metal 粗金属

effluent: 废水，污水

byproduct: 副产品；不好的结果
One of the byproducts of unemployment is an increase in crime.

slake one's thirst for: = satisfy one's thirst for
slake: satisfy a feeling of being thirst or of wanting something.
slake your thirst with drink

United Nations scientists warned that desalination is creating huge volumes of chemical-laced brine that risks contaminating food chains if left untreated. The problem is most acute in the Middle East and North Africa, which account for two-thirds of the world’s water contaminated by energy-intensive desalination plants.

lace: 掺有
chemical-laced: 掺有化学污染的

contaminate: （不一定有害的）污染
pollute: （水、土壤、食物）污染（一定是有害的）

treat: 处理，治疗，治理
effluent treatment 污水治理

acute: 十分严重的，（触感）剧烈的，（感觉）极其的
She felt acute embarrassment 极其尴尬
acute stomach pains 剧烈的腹部疼痛

account for: 数量上占……

Desalination is an industrial process that uses heat and pressure to make seawater fit for human consumption. For every liter of potable water produced, the UN estimates about 1.5 liters of liquid polluted with chlorine and copper are created. When pumped back into the ocean, the toxic brine depletes oxygen and impacts organisms along the food chain.

consumption: （资源，食物等的）消耗

potable water: （安全的）饮用水
drinking water

chlorine: 氯；氯气
the chlorine in the swimming water

depletes: 消耗，耗费（资源、金钱、精力等）
deplete the earth's natural resources
The illness depletes human's energy.

organism: 生物体，有机体

Saudi Arabia’s desalination plants produce about 31.5 million cubic meters of contaminated water each day. That volume of liquid is equivalent to about 20 million barrels of oil a day, or, double the amount of crude it currently produces. The Kingdom is tendering seven desalination projects as it tries to alleviate the impacts of depleted aquifers.

barrel: 桶（石油计量单位，相当于120~159升）
Oil prices fell to $9 a barrel.

double: 两倍于……

tender: （做及物动词用时表示）提议，提出
She tendered a proposal.

alleviate: = ease 减轻，缓和
to alleviate suffering
to alleviate the problem

depleted: 被消耗殆尽的
aquifer: （岩石或土壤的）含水层，蓄水层

Other countries have successfully used the brine to cultivate forage shrubs, though at the cost of land salinization. “There is a need to translate such research and convert an environmental problem into an economic opportunity, ” said Manzoor Qadir, the UN institute’s assistant director. “This is particularly important in countries producing large volumes of brine with relatively low efficiencies, such as Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Kuwait and Qatar.”

forage shrubs: 饲用灌木
forage grass: 饲用牧草

land salinization: 土地盐碱化

Saudi Arabia: 沙特阿拉伯
U.A.E: 阿联酋
Kuwait: 科威特
Qatar: 卡塔尔

Questions:

1. What is the seawater desalination(淡化)?
2. What is the meaning of "toxic"?
3. What does toxic effluent have effect on the ecosystem?

Reviews:
回忆以下粗体部分的英文表达并翻译以下句子：

1. 为了解决沙特这座沙漠王国的缺水问题
2. 沙特已经成为了全球最大的有毒废水制造国
3. 这是因为海水淡化会产生大量的掺有化学污染的盐水
4. 每生产一升饮用水就会产生1.5升被氯和铜污染的液体
5. 这种有毒盐水会消耗海水中的氧气
6. 并且还会影响食物链上的生物
7. 更令人担忧的是沙特还在提议另外7个海水淡化项目
8. 专家建议沙特可以用盐水灌溉饲用灌木
9. 并把现存的环境问题转换成商机

癌症概述：为什么癌症还是众病之王？

相比与其他已经被人类控制了的疾病，癌症仍然是众病之王。

天花已经被消灭，鼠疫也已经极为罕见，艾滋病甚至也被控制成了慢性病，为什么癌症还是个例外？

“例外”是指：为什么人们仍然闻癌色变？

原因是：

1. 癌症的发病率和死亡率高、癌症的神秘和难以对抗

2. 癌症更像是人类的宿命（逃不过的一劫）

3. 公众对治疗癌症的认知没有跟上

   • ❌ 治疗癌症就是不顾一切杀死所有癌细胞

   • ❌ 治疗癌症主要靠手术、化疗药物和放疗

   • ❌ 治疗癌症就是彻底跟它对抗死扛

行为交易策略：应计异象与盈余公告后漂移效应

行为交易策略：应计异象与盈余公告后漂移效应

应计异象（斯隆，1996）

异象的直观感受

　　买入应计项目少的股票，同时卖出应计项目多的股票，一段时间后可以获得超额收益。

　　应计项目包括：应收账款、应付账款、存货。

异象的数据检验

　　提出者 斯隆 教授对应计异象做了检验：

• 研究样本的时间范围覆盖 ????~????，将近 30 年；

• 研究样本的取样范围覆盖 ???? 所有股票，买入应计项目最少的那组，同时卖出应计项目最多的那组。

　　验证结果：年化收益超过 10%，其中 29 年都是正收益 。（在美国这个成熟的市场，能获得 2% 左右的收益已经很不容易）

异象的应用范围

　　（待查）

异象的心理学解释

　　类似于代表性偏差，非理性投资者在解读财务报表时，更多关注的是每股收益，并将其作为价值的反映。

　　但是同样的盈利（每股收益），其质量可能不一样，而质量反映的是股票公司的经营状况，是股票的价值所在。

　　应计项目（应收、应付、存货）为什么能够反应公司的经营状况或股票的价值？

• 应收账款：公司卖产品，买家总是有能力赊账，侧面反应卖家（公司）缺乏议价能力，盈利能力减分；

• 应付账款：公司买产品，公司总是有能力赊账，侧面反应公司（买家）拥有议价能力，盈利能力加分；

• 存货：公司存产品，因为卖不出去，侧面反映了公司的经营状况不佳。
  （注意：这个跟行业有关，要看行业存货的一般水平，有些行业是高存货行业，比如...）

盈余公告后漂移效应（伯纳德-托马斯，19??）

异象的直观感受

　　类似于惯性，未预期盈余较高的公司在未来一段时期内的市场回报会显著地高于那些未预期盈余较低的公司。

异象的数据检验

　　密歇根大学 伯纳德 教授和哥伦比亚大学 托马斯 教授对盈余公告后漂移效应做了检验：

• 研究样本的时间范围覆盖 ????~????，将近 ?? 年；

• 研究样本的取样范围覆盖 ???? 所有股票，按照 未预期盈余高低 来排序，买入后最高的一组，同时卖出最低的一组。

　　验证结果：年化收益超过 10%，连续 10 年 。（在美国这个成熟的市场，能获得 2% 左右的收益已经很不容易）

异象的应用范围

　　市场环境不同，它的效用也不用。如果信息提前泄露（选择性信息披露），那么在盈余公告日，构建策略的效果就会较差。

　　美国效果好，**效果差。

　　因为在美国市场，选择性信息披露是写入 公平信息披露法案 被禁止的；而在**市场，由于法律和制度的历史原因，股票市场还是会提前泄露信息的。

　　因此，在**市场，使用盈余公告后漂移效应，构建策略的时间点应该适当提前，这样可以大大提升策略效果（陆蓉团队研究）。

异象的心理学解释

　　短期惯性效应，或信息缓慢扩散理论。

Reading News: PM Abe vows to tackle growing child abuse in Japan

PM Abe vows to tackle growing child abuse in Japan

from the AFP

Questions:

1. 文中哪两个词汇都有“据称”的意思？
2. “涉嫌”用英语怎么说？
3. What's your opinion about how can we do to settle down these abused children?

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Saturday vowed to crack down on the increasing number of child abuse cases in Japan after the death of a 10-year-old girl, allegedly killed by her abusive father, shocked the country.

vow: n. 发誓；誓言 v. 发誓
to make a vow
The bride and groom exchanged their vows.

tackle: 应对，处理（多为困难的事情）；
（橄榄球防守动作）擒抱（飞身抱住对方球员迫使其放开球）

crack down on: 严厉打击，严格治理
n. crackdown
The crackdown of illegal fund-raising through cryptocurrencies

allegedly: 据说；据指控 = reportedly
经常出现在新闻写作中，更为严谨和客观
She is the alleged murderer.

abusive: 有虐待倾向的

Mia Kurihara was found dead in the bathroom of her home in Chiba near Tokyo last month after authorities failed to respond to her repeated pleas for help. Her parents have been arrested on suspicion of assaulting their daughter after her father reportedly abused her regularly and refused to allow her to go to school.

be found dead: = be found to be dead

authorities: 当局；有关部门

plea: n. 请求；申辩
John Lennon's "Imagine" makes a plea for world peace.
plead: v.
She pleaded for help repeatedly.

on suspicion of: 被怀疑；涉嫌
= be suspected of

assault: （使用暴力）侵犯，袭击，攻击

Police have found a video on her father's mobile phone showing him hitting her, local media said, adding that she cried in the footage saying: "Dad, I'm sorry."

footage: = vedio

The high-profile case has drawn huge media attention, prompting the government to take action amid growing public awareness over child abuse. Abe told members of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party that his government had ordered child welfare centres across the nation to confirm within a month the safety of all children suspected to have been abused. Abe also said the government would raise the number of child welfare workers by some 1, 000 for the next fiscal year starting in April from the current 3, 200.

high-profile: 高调的；备受关注的；引发热议的
a high-profile celebrity breakup
to conduct high-profile military exercises

prompt: 促使

amid: 在……的背景当中

public awareness: 公共意识
environmental awareness
to raise public awareness
heightened awareness 提高了的意识，增强了的意识
"The Wandering Earth" has brough about a heightened awareness of Chinese science fiction around the world.

ruling: 执政的
Liberal Democratic Party: 自由**党

across the nation: 全国范围内

fiscal year: 财政年度
**财年采取历年制，从每年1月1号到当年12月31号定义为一个财年
日本财年采取跨年制，从每年4月1号到次年4月1号定义为一个财年
所以文中说 the next fiscal year starting in April

Police reported the suspected abuse of a record-high 80, 104 minors to child welfare authorities in Japan in 2018, Kyodo News said.

record-high: 创纪录的
sky-high 像天空这么高
Polic reported the suspected abuse of 80k minors, which is a record.

minor: 未成年人

Questions:

1. 文中哪两个词汇都有“据称”的意思？
2. “涉嫌”用英语怎么说？
3. What's your opinion about how can we do to settle down these abused children?

Reviews:

1. --

How to Win Friends and Influence People - Chapter1.4

How to Win Friends and Influence People - Chapter1.4

If You Want to Gather Over Honey, Don't Kick Over the Beehive

Bitter criticism caused the sensitive Thomas Hardy, one of the finest novelists ever to enrich English literature, to give up forever the writing of fiction.

Criticism drove Thomas Chatterton, the English poet, to suicide.

Benjamin Franklin, tactless in his youth, became so diplomatic, so adroit at handling people, that he was made American Ambassador to France.

The secret of his success?

"I will speak ill of no man," he said, "and speak all the good I know of everybody."

Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain — and most fools do.

But it takes character and self-control to be understanding and forgiving.

it takes character and self-control to be understanding and forgiving:
这里的 take 为“需要、依赖”之意：理解和宽容则依赖于个人性格和自控能力

"A great man shows his greatness," said Carlyle, "by the way he treats little men."

Bob Hoover, a famous test pilot and frequent performer at air shows, was returning to his home in Los Angeles from an air show in San Diego.

As described in the magazine Flight Operations, at three hundred feet in the air, both engines suddenly stopped.

By deft maneuvering he managed to land the plane, but it was badly damaged although nobody was hurt.

manage to: = try and success to

Hoover's first act after the emergency landing was to inspect the airplane's fuel.

Just as he suspected, the World War II propeller plane he had been flying had been fueled with jet fuel rather than gasoline.

propeller plane: 螺旋桨飞机，一种头部或双翼带有螺旋桨驱动飞行的飞机

Upon returning to the airport, he asked to see the mechanic who had serviced his airplane.

This young man was sick with the agony of his mistake.

Tears streamed down his face as Hoover approached.

He had just caused the loss of a very expensive plane and could have caused the loss of three lives as well.

You can imagine Hoover's anger.

One could anticipate the tongue lashing that this proud and precise pilot would unleash for that carelessness.

But Hoover didn't scold the mechanic; he didn't even criticize him.

Instead, he put his big arm around the man's shoulder and said, "To show you I'm sure that you'll never do this again, I want you to service my F-51 tomorrow."

Often parents are tempted to criticize their children.

You would expect me to say "don't."

But I will not, I am merely going to say, "Before you criticize them, read one of the classics of American journalism, 'Father Forgets.' "

It originally appeared as an editorial in the People's Home Journal.

We are reprinting it here with the author's permission, as condensed in the Reader's Digest:

Father Forgets is one of those little pieces which dashed in a moment of sincere feeling—strikes an echoing chord in so many readers as to become a perennial reprint favorite.

as to: 有种“同时也”的意思

Since its first appearance, "Father Forgets" has been reproduced, writes the author, W, Livingston Larned, "in hundreds of magazines and house organs, and in newspapers the country over.

It has been reprinted almost as extensively in many foreign languages.

I^{？ have given personal permission to thousands who wished to read it from school, church, and lecture platforms.}

lecture platform: 演讲台，讲台

It has been 'on the air' on countless occasions and programs.

Oddly enough, college periodicals have used it, and high-school magazines.

Sometimes a little piece seems mysteriously to 'click.'

This one certainly did.

以下是引用 Father Forgets

FATHER FORGETS
W.Livingston Larned

Listen, son: I am saying this as you lie asleep, one little paw crumpled under your cheek and the blond curls stickily wet on your damp forehead.

I have stolen into your room alone.

Just a few minutes ago, as I sat reading my paper in the library, a stifling wave of remorse swept over me.

Guiltily I came to your bedside.

There are the things I was thinking of, son: I had been cross to you.

I scolded you as you were dressing for school because you gave your face merely a dab with a towel.

I took you to task for not cleaning your shoes.

take somebody to task: 责备某人

I called out angrily when you threw some of your things on the floor.

At breakfast I found fault, too.

You spilled things. You gulped down your food. You put your elbows on the table. You spread butter too thick on your bread.

And as you started off to play and I made for my train, you turned and waved a hand and called, "Goodbye, Daddy!" and I frowned, and said in reply, "Hold your shoulders back!"

"Hold your shoulders back!": “背挺直！”（把肩膀往后缩，就是背挺直）
make for: = go for: 前往

Then it began all over again in the late afternoon.

As I came up the road I spied you, down on your knees, playing marbles.

down on your knees: 直接膝盖触地蹲着
全句等同于：As I came up the road I spied you playing marbles, with your knees down directly on the groud

There were holes in your stockings.

I humiliated you before your boyfriends by marching you ahead of me to the house.

Stockings were expensive and if you had to buy them you would be more careful!

Imagine that, son, from a father!

Do you remember, later, when I was reading in the library, how you came in timidly, with a sort of hurt look in your eyes?

When I glanced up over my paper, impatient at the interruption, you hesitated at the door.

"What is it you want?" I snapped.

You said nothing, but ran across in one tempestuous plunge, and threw your arms around my neck and kissed me, and your small arms tightened with an affection that God had set blooming in your heart and which even neglect could not wither.

ran across in one tempestuous plunge: ？

And then you were gone, pattering up the stairs.

Well, son, it was shortly afterwards that my paper slipped from my hands and a terrible sickening fear came over me.

What has habit been doing to me?

The habit of finding fault, of reprimanding — this was my reward to you for being a boy.

It was not that I did not love you; it was that I expected too much of youth.

I was measuring you by the yardstick of my own years.

And there was so much that was good and fine and true in your character.

The little heart of you was as big as the dawn itself over the wide hills.

This was shown by your spontaneous impulse to rush in and kiss me good night.

Nothing else matters tonight, son.

I have come to your bed-side in the darkness, and I have knelt there, ashamed!

It is a feeble atonement; I know you would not understand these things if I told them to you during your waking hours.

But tomorrow I will be a real daddy! I will chum with you, and suffer when you suffer, and laugh when you laugh.

I will bite my tongue when impatient words come.

I will keep saying as if it were a ritual: "He is nothing but a boy — a little boy!"

I am afraid I have visualized you as a man.

Yet as I see you now, son, crumpled and weary in your cot, I see that you are still a baby.

Yesterday you were in your mother's arms, your head on her shoulder.

I have asked too much, too much.

Instead of condemning people, let's try to understand them.

Let's try to figure out why they do what they do.

That's a lot more profitable and intriguing than criticism; and it breeds sympathy, tolerance and kindness.

"To know all is to forgive all."

As Dr. Johnson said: "God himself, sir, does not propose to judge man until the end of his days."

Why should you and I?

Principle 1 — Don't criticize, condemn or complain.

Reading News:

【速记】关于 redux 的 reducer 适合 callback 吗

The third principle of Redux (listed in the introduction section of the docs) is that 'changes are made with pure functions'.

A pure function is a function that always returns the same result given the same inputs, and doesn't cause any side effects. Having a callback log something out most definitely would be a side effect!

The docs go on to say:

It's very important that the reducer stays pure. Things you should never do inside a reducer:

Mutate its arguments;
Perform side effects like API calls and routing transitions;
Call non-pure functions, e.g. Date.now() or Math.random().
The reasoning behind this is it makes your reducers predictable - you know that, given an action with a certain payload, you're guaranteed to have the same output. This makes your app both easier to understand as a developer, and easier to unit test.

If you want to perform side effects when an action takes place, you should install a middleware that allows you to do so - some common examples of these are:

redux-thunk, which allows you to dispatch functions that can in turn dispatch actions (commonly used to make API calls)
redux-logger, which allows you to log out actions that are dispatched.
redux-devtools-extension, which allows you to view your state and actions in a Chrome devtools extension.
If you can't find a middleware package that does what you need (rare, to be honest - there's lots out there already!), you can write your own quite easily.

——from Adding a callback to a Redux Reducer

其他引用：

• Wait for redux action to finish dispatching when using redux saga
• React Redux - Is adding async method in a Reducer is an anti pattern?

mvc，react，flux，redux 之间的关系

mvc，react，flux，redux 之间的关系

理解：

　　mvc 有助于模块化，调试和维护扩展方便。mvc 先在后端得到应用，前端在应用 mvc 出现一个问题，c 分散在各个 v 里面，于是把 c 提出来，真正实现了前端 mvc，这个实现方式被重命名为 flux，与后端 mvc 区分。redux 用于管理 state。state 与 view（v）绑定，state 更新，view 更新，这是 c 要做的事，在未提出 flux 时，前端 mvc 中的 c 常常分散到各个 v 里面，于是把 c 提出来，真正实现了前端 mvc，这个实现方式被重命名为 flux 。。。

参考：

• 怎样理顺react，flux，redux这些概念的关系，开发中有必要使用它们吗? - 北溟小鱼hk的回答 - 知乎

Reading News: Theresa May loses big over her Brexit deal

Theresa May loses big over her Brexit deal

from The Economist

Questions:

1. Tory refers to which party?
2. What is the biggest problem on the conservation between British and EU?
3. “公投”用英语怎么说？

On January 15th Britain’s prime minister, Theresa May, lost the parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal by the huge margin of 230 votes, the largest-ever defeat for a ruling party. Coming after five days of debate during which Tory backbenchers repeatedly said they would vote down the deal, the result was not a surprise. But the margin of defeat was. It leaves Mrs May with precious little time to decide what to do next.

lose big over something: 在某件事上输大了、输得很严重、输惨了。这里 big 做副词，表示大大地、令人印象深刻的、严重的
同样的用法还有 think big 考虑大局，做一番大事

parliamentary: 议会的

margin: （获胜者或失败者在时间或票数上领先的或落后的）幅度、差额

largest-ever: 形容词-ever 表示有史以来怎么样的

ruling party: 执政党
oppsition party 反对党

backbencher: 后座议员，不担任要职的议员，一般后座议员数量多于前座议员，所以他们的投票更有决定权
frontbencher 前座议员，担任要职的议员或政党的领袖

vote down: 投票否决

precious little: 非常少，这里 precious 用作副词，是一种不常见的用法
背景知识：之所以留给梅姨的时间不多是因为，欧盟脱欧协议规定3月29号英国就要启动脱欧程序进入脱欧过渡期
这段过渡期将从今年的3月29号持续到明年年底，在此期间英国将继续留在欧盟关税同盟，可以继续遵循欧盟协议与欧盟国家进行自由贸易，
过渡期后，英国与欧盟国家之间的贸易协议将遵循世贸组织的规定，也就是关税水平和贸易壁垒都将相对上升；
但是现在，这份协议被否决了，这意味着梅姨如果不在2个月内交出一份让下议院满意的新协议，英国将会面临无协议脱欧，
也就是过渡期直接没有了，欧盟的法律将立即不适用于英国，这对英国和欧盟国家双方都会造成经济重创

Following her defeat, Mrs May promised to consult MPs on possible changes to make her Brexit deal more palatable. She would then hope to go back to Brussels to get legal changes. The European Union is, after all, familiar with countries’ difficulties in ratifying treaties. Add a few tweaks and declarations, offer some concessions—and invite the country concerned to vote again.

palatable: = acceptable

Brussels: 比利时首都布鲁塞尔，欧盟总部

ratify: sign to official

treaty: = deal

tweak: n. 扭，微调
have her ear a tweak

concession: 让步，妥协
make some concession

country concerned: 相关国家

The trouble is that such a course is far harder this time round. The EU leaders are adamant that they cannot make legally substantive changes to the much-disliked Irish “backstop”, which guarantees that there will be no hard border in Ireland by, if necessary, keeping the entire United Kingdom in a customs union with the EU.

course: process 这里表示进程，脱欧进程

背景知识：
硬边界 hard-border：英国有个北爱尔兰，欧盟有个爱尔兰，军事上势不两立，经济上得益于欧盟协议得以自由贸易，
为了不使经济上的冲突加剧军事上的不和平，双方都不希望在英国脱欧后的双方边境上设立实体边境海关检查设施，也就是“硬边界”。
为此，欧盟提出将英国北爱尔兰单独留在欧盟，但英国不同意这种做法，因为英国认为这相当于在爱尔兰海上划边界线，有损英国领土完整，
同时，北爱尔兰**党统一领导人也表示，不分裂带来的经济和社会利益远比与欧盟的关系重要得多，他呼吁英国与相关国家领导人合作获得更好的脱欧协议。
后备计划 backstop: 如果脱欧提议Brexit不通过，为了力保英国北爱尔兰和爱尔兰之间的贸易关系，
英国将在脱欧后（而且是交完脱欧费后）被迫留在欧盟，这有可能导致无限期滞留欧盟。
这就是矛盾所在，英国想要取消后备计划，爱尔兰不想建立硬边界，而取消后备计划没有其他计划则会导致硬边界建立。

adamant: impossible to pursuade, or unwilling to change a decision

substantive: 实质性的

customs: 海关（自带复数）

Some MPs will push for a second referendum. Others are hoping to take charge of the Brexit process themselves. The risk is that Britain could leave the EU with no deal at all, wreaking maximum damage on the economy. Mrs May said that she was firmly against that idea.

push for: 奋力争取

referendum: 公投

take charge of: 负责

leave the EU with no deal at all: no-deal Brexit

wreak: to cause something to happen in a violent and often uncontrolled way
常跟 havoc 大浩劫：The recent storms have wreaked havoc on crops.

Questions:

1. Tory refers to which party?
2. What is the biggest problem on the conservation between British and EU?
3. “公投”用英语怎么说？

Reviews:

1. --

Reading News: China's Baidu pledges to improve search service after complaint

China's Baidu pledges to improve search service after complaint

from the Reuters

Questions:

1. What's the main content of the article that Fang complains?
2. How many types of media are mentioned in this article and what are they?
3. What's your opinion on Baidu search?

China's top search engine Baidu Inc said on Wednesday it will improve its media aggregating service after a complaint about the quality of the service and its search results went viral on social media.

pledge: （严肃而郑重地）发誓，保证
to make a serious or formal promise to do something
pledge something: Soldiers must pledge allegiance to their country.
pledge to do something: pledge to keep secret

compaint: n. 投诉，抱怨

Inc: Incooperated 股份制公司

aggregate: 使聚集，使积聚
to put different items together to form a group or a total
aggregate data: 收集数据
aggregate votes: 积聚选票
media aggregating service: 媒体聚合服务

Baidu was placing low-quality pieces from its Baijiahao service, which selects articles from both legacy and independent media outlets for display on Baidu's own webpages, and other Baidu properties towards the top of its search results, journalist Fang Kecheng wrote in an article on Tuesday.

properties: 这里指产品

piece: 作家作品，这里指文章

legacy: adj. 古老的，陈旧的 old but still used by some people
n. 遗产

outlets: 这里意为渠道 a way of making information or entertainment avaliable to the public
media outlet: （固定搭配）媒体渠道

The complaint comes after Baidu, often compared to Alphabet Inc's Google, underwent a restructuring and rigorous cleanup of illegal medical advertising that emerged in 2016 and led to regulation that slashed the number of eligible advertisers.

undergo: 经历，经受，遭受 to experience something that is unpleasant or something that involves a change
undergo an operation
undergo a revival(复兴)

restructure: 调整，改组，重建 reorganize something such as a system or a company in a new and different way
restructure the compant
restructure one's life

rigorous: = strict
Her work successed in meeting the regorous standards.

emerge: to appear or comt out from somewhere
A diver emerged from the water
A new problem emerged

slash: 大幅削减；劈，砍 to very much reduce something such as money or jobs
Prices have been slashed by 50 percent.

eligible: 合格的；理想的，合适的 having the necessary qualities or satisfying the necessary conditions.
be eligible for something 有资格某事
You could be eligible for a university scholarship

Baidu on Wednesday acknowledged the article in a post on its Twitter-like Weibo account and said that Baijiahao articles account for roughly 10 percent of its search results.

account for: 数量上占

"The media attention suggests Baijiahao can be done better, " the statement said.

"We will continue to court quality media outlets and creators and use positive mechanisms to encourage authors to spread high-quality original content, " it said, adding Baijiahao was designed to optimize retrieval speeds for mobile users.

court: v. 求取，设法获得 to try to get something especially attention or support from other people
court public attention
court approval

mechanisms: 机制
the mechanism for collecting taxes

retrieval: （信息）检索；取回
teach the dog to retrieve a ball
retriever 寻回犬 Labrador Retriever 拉布拉多寻回犬

Shares of U.S.-listed Baidu tumbled 6.4 percent on Tuesday, or about $4 billion by value, weighed down by earnings and target price downgrades from Citi and Jefferies, while the widespread sharing of Fang's article sparked concerns over its advertising practices.

tumble: 跌倒，坠落；暴跌，骤降 to fall a lot in value in a short time
The oil price is tumbling.

weight down: 施加压力；使焦虑；使沮丧
She was weighted down with shopping bags.
She felt weighted down by here respoinsiblities.

target price downgrades: 目标价格下调

"For Baidu over time, media exposure has been on the negative side, " said Pacific Epoch analyst Raymond Feng, adding Baidu faces competition from other Chinese tech companies, many of which offer a broader range of ad placement styles than Baidu.

a broader range of: 范围更广泛的，更丰富的

Baidu declined to comment on the market fluctuations.

fluctuate: 波动
the fluctuations in exchange rate
the fluctuations in temperature

Questions:

1. What's the main content of the article that Fang complains?
2. How many types of media are mentioned in this article and what are they?
3. What's your opinion on Baidu search?

Reviews:

1. --

Linux find 按文件最后访问/状态修改/内容修改时间查找文件

Linux find 按文件最后访问/状态修改/内容修改时间查找文件

概念

　　时间概念包括：某个时间点前、某个时间段内、某个时间点前的某个时间段内。

1. 某个时间点前（+n）：某个时间点之前的时间段内，是一段时间内；

2. 某个时间段内（-n）：某个时间段内，也是一段时间内；

3. 某个时间点前的某个时间段内（n）：某个时间点之前的某个时间段内，也是一段时间内；

　　文件操作包括：访问、状态修改、内容修改。

1. 访问（-atime）：access time；

2. 状态修改（-ctime）：change time；

3. 内容修改（-mtime）：modify time；

用法

1. 查找 n+1 天前 内容修改的文件：find /path/to/dir -mtime +n；

2. 查找 n 天内 内容修改的文件：find /path/to/dir -mtime -n；

3. 查找 n+1 天前的 n 天内 内容修改的文件：find /path/to/dir -mtime n；

参考

1. Linux:find 按文件修改时间查找文件

Position Occupied

Position Occupied

行为交易策略：规模溢价（小盘股异象）和 价值溢价（价值股异象）

行为交易策略：规模溢价（小盘股异象）和 价值溢价（价值股异象）

规模溢价——小盘股异象（本兹，1981）

异象的直观感受

　　只买小公司股票的投资组合，肯定比随机地、大小公司都买的要好。

　　传统金融学则认为：配置股票的方式是完全随机的，就是市场上所有的股票都买一点，这样风险最分散，收益最优。

异象的数据检验

　　诺奖得主芝加哥大学的 法玛 教授和他的合作者 弗仑奇 教授在 本兹 提出该异象后，重新对规模效应做了检验：

• 研究样本的时间范围覆盖 1963~1990，将近 30 年；

• 研究样本的取样范围覆盖 美国 3 个交易所所有股票。

　　验证结果：平均每个月能获得 0.74% 的正收益，折合年化收益超过 8% 。（在美国这个成熟的市场，能获得 2% 左右的收益已经很不容易）

　　本意是想推翻这个异象，结果反而用大量的数据验证了这个异象。他们不得已只能修改自己的传统金融学模型。

异象的应用范围

　　学者们在 本兹 提出该异象后，分别在不同国家的股票市场上都做了检验，发现存在 不同程度的 类似现象。

异象的心理学解释

价值溢价——价值股异象（？，？）

异象的直观感受

　　买入价值股（或便宜股，市盈率或市净率较低），会比买入成长股（昂贵股）涨得更多，收益更高。

　　传统金融学则认为：（待查）

异象的数据检验

　　诺奖得主芝加哥大学的 法玛 教授和他的合作者 弗仑奇 教授在 ？ 提出该异象后，重新对价值股异象做了检验：

• ？研究样本的时间范围覆盖 1963~1990，将近 30 年；

• ？研究样本的取样范围覆盖 美国 3 个交易所所有股票。

　　验证结果：平均每个月能获得 1.53% 的正收益，折合年化收益超过 10% 。（在美国这个成熟的市场，能获得 2% 左右的收益已经很不容易）

　　本意是想推翻这个异象，结果反而用大量的数据验证了这个异象。他们不得已只能进一步修改自己的传统金融学模型，连同规模效应，提出了三因子模型。

异象的应用范围

　　？学者们在 ？ 提出该异象后，分别在不同国家的股票市场上都做了检验，发现存在 不同程度的 类似现象。

异象的心理学解释

两种异象的心理学解释

• 小盘股溢价：投资者错误估计小盘股价值，从而不喜欢这种类型的股票。

在美国，投资者以机构为主，机构出于某些原因？往往偏爱蓝筹股，而不喜欢业绩较差的小盘股，导致小盘股流动性不够，只有一些封闭性基金愿意持有（不用担心客户中途赎回造成波动损失）。这就造成了一边倒，出现了小盘股的溢价现象。

• 价值股溢价：同理。

价值股成长性不好，也不被机构看好。

两种异象在**市场的适用效果

• 小盘股溢价：效果不如预期，因为**市场以散户为主，“喜欢炒新、炒小、炒差”，因此小盘股往往溢价不足。

• 价值股溢价：据说适用，效果待查。

Reading News: Protein mania: the rich world’s new diet obsession

Protein mania: the rich world’s new diet obsession

from the Guardian

Questions:

1. obsession 怎么理解？
2. What nutrients does food provide to human's body?
3. Why people have protein obsession?

Are you getting enough protein? The question provides its own answer: if you are worrying about the amount of protein in your diet, then you are almost certainly eating more than enough.

You merely need to visit a western supermarket today to see that many people regard protein as some kind of universal elixir – one food companies are profitably adding to anything they can. “When the Box Says ‘Protein’, Shoppers Say ‘I’ll take it’” was the headline of a 2013 article in the Wall Street Journal.

elixir: 灵丹妙药

The intensity of our protein obsession can only be understood as part of a wider series of diet battles that go back half a century. If we now thirst for protein as if it were water, it may be because the other two macronutrients – fats and carbohydrates – have each in turn been made to seem toxic in the public mind.

diet battles: 字面意思是“饮食战争”，这里意为不同饮食习惯之间的冲突

go back = date back 追溯到

macronutrient: macro nutrient 主要营养素，常量营养物

in turn: 先后地

In the current nutrition wars, protein has emerged as the last macronutrient left standing. David L Katz, an American doctor and public health scholar who is the director of the Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center said, “First they told us to cut fat. But instead of wholegrains and lentils, we ate low-fat junk food.” Then food marketers heard the message about cutting carbs and sold us protein-enriched junk foods instead.

emerge: 显露，~ as 表示显露成为、一跃成为

left standing: 剩下 保持屹立不倒

scholar: 学者

director: 这里是主任（研究中心主任）

wholegrains: wholegrain 全谷物的，不是名词，~s 此处意为全谷物食品

lentil: 小扁豆

For decades now, there has been a tendency to think about what we eat and drink in terms of nutrients, rather than real whole ingredients in all their complexity. A combination of diet fads and clever marketing has got us here. It doesn’t matter whether we fixate on “low fat” or “low carbs” or “high protein” – we are making the same old mistakes about nutrition in a new form.

in terms of: 从某种角度

ingredients: 成分

fad: 短暂的没有根据的时尚或狂热
The current fad for HollyWood is for TV remakes.

fixate on: 痴迷于，不正常的依恋、迷上

Questions:

1. obsession 怎么理解？
2. What nutrients does food provide to human's body?
3. Why people have protein obsession?

Reviews:

1. --

速记：JavaScript 模块化规范——CommonJS，AMD，CMD，ES6

JavaScript 模块化规范——CommonJS，AMD，CMD，ES6

为什么需要模块化：因为前端和后端(nodejs)开发中需要对代码进行模块化拆分，方便管理和重用

CommonJS 最早提出，用于 nodejs，特点是：同步加载 和 按需加载

同步加载适用于服务器，因为服务器的模块文件都在本地，无需异步请求，加载速度较快，所以不考虑异步加载

但这样就不适用于浏览器，因为浏览器在程序运行时加载的模块需要从远程服务器获取，网络请求通常不稳定而且可能较慢，如果同步地等待所有模块都请求加载完再渲染前端的界面(dom 构建 和 css 渲染等)，那么用户体验就会很差

AMD 提出就是用于浏览器端的模块化，它的特点是：异步加载 和 依赖前置

所谓 依赖前置 就是要把程序依赖的模块都在程序开始前声明加载，然后进行异步加载，程序继续进行，异步加载可以声明回调，从而在某个模块加载完毕后做些需要的事情

依赖前置 意味着不能 按需加载

CMD 提出也是用于浏览器的模块化，它的特点是：异步加载 和 依赖就近

所谓 依赖就近 就是 按需加载

以上三种规范中 CommonJS 是 nodejs 提出的，AMD 是 RequireJS 提出的，CMD 是 SeaJS 提出的，都是前端社区自己实现的，只是得到了大家的认可和广泛使用，而ES6的模块化方案是真正的规范

但是 nodejs 以及部分浏览器还不支持 ES6，需要用 babel 或 rollup 打包成 ES5，或者使用 esm

ES6 的特点是：异步加载 和 按需加载，同时结合了 CJS 的按需加载 和 AMD 的异步加载的特点，是未来模块化方案的趋势

参考：

• JavaScript模块化 --- Commonjs、AMD、CMD、ES6 modules
• AMD，CMD，CommonJS和ES6的对比
• JS模块化加载之CommonJS、AMD、CMD、ES6
• exports、module.exports和export、export default到底是咋回事

何帆报告2018-2019：引言——慢变量与小趋势

本文处于完善之中

何帆报告2018-2019：引言——慢变量与小趋势

慢变量

什么是慢变量

　　影响事物发展的变量有两种，一种是快变量，一种是慢变量。

　　快变量的特点是：对事物发展的影响速度相对较快（反过来说也就是事物发展对它的响应速度相对较快），但是持续时间相对较短；

　　慢变量的特点是：对事物发展的影响速度相对较慢（反过来说也就是事物发展对它的响应速度相对较慢），但是持续时间相对较长（也叫惯性效应、长尾效应）。

　　举个例子：关于自然

　　我们要分析海浪这个事物的发展，比如它的高低（事物发展的其中一个我们感兴趣的维度）；

　　然后我们通过对各种短期现象的观察发现（以下简称短期现象观察）：影响海浪高低的变量之一是：风的大小——也就是所谓的“无风不起浪”；

　　但是经过把各个短期现象按照时间顺序串联起来进行长期深入研究发现（以下简称长期深入研究）：影响海浪高低的真正原因是引力（月地引力+日地引力），也就是另一个变量：月地引力+日地引力的大小——又取决于月地距离的远近（因为月地轨道为椭圆形）和日月地之间的相对位置（比如在同一直线上引力最大）。

　　当海浪形成后，风力变大，海浪立刻响应变大，风力变小，海浪也立刻响应变小——也就是风力这个变量对海浪这个事物发展的影响速度是相对较快的（反过来说也就是海浪这个事物的发展对风力的响应速度是相对较快的）；但是风力大小却不会对海浪高低形成长时间的持续影响，因为引力（真正的变量）衰落后，风力再大也起不了大浪。

　　所以：影响海浪高低的快变量就是风的大小，而慢变量就是引力的大小。

　　再举个例子：关于房价

　　我们要分析房价这个事物的发展，比如它的涨跌（事物发展的其中一个我们感兴趣的维度）；

　　然后我们通过短期现象观察发现：影响房价涨跌的变量有：首付比例、银行按揭贷款利率、土地供应等——首付或利率提高、或土地供应充足，则房价应声下跌；反之则上涨；

　　但是经过长期深入研究发现：影响房价涨跌的真正原因是供求关系*，也就是另一个变量：供应-需求的大小——又取决于人口年龄结构**（因为年轻人是刚需主体，老年人可能卖房养老）。

　　当供求关系形成后，首付或利率提高、或土地供应充足，则房价应声下跌，反之则上涨；但是首付、利率和土地供应都不会对房价涨跌形成长时间的持续影响，因为人口老龄化造成的供过于求之后，首付比例再低、按揭贷款利率再小、土地供应再不足也无法阻挡房价的下跌。

　　所以：影响房价涨跌的快变量就是一些房地产政策，而慢变量就是人口年龄结构。

　　最后举个例子：关于人生

　　我们要分析人生这个事物的发展（个人未来发展），比如它的成就高低（事物发展的其中一个我们感兴趣的维度）；

　　然后我们通过短期现象观察发现：影响个人成就高低的变量（因素）有：个人的努力程度、个人的受教育程度等——越努力就越能获得成就，学历越高也越容易达成成就；也就是所谓的是金子在哪都能发光，金子成色越好，越有光泽；

　　但是经过长期深入研究发现：影响人生成就高低的真正原因是个人所处环境给个人发展提供的资源多少，也就是另一个变量：个人所处环境给个人发展提供的资源多少——又取决于个人所处的时代和国家；

　　金子本身并不会发光，如果外界缺少充足的光线，那么金子成色再好也不能闪现光泽。
　　所以：影响个人成就高低的快变量就是个人所拥有的素质，而满变量就是个人所处的环境。

慢变量的影响力——从美国的增长看慢变量的影响力

　　美国西北大学经济学家罗伯特·戈登教授在《美国增长的起落》中提到美国在1870~1970这100年间出现了一次经济大跃进，并指出其背后推手就是“技术进步”这个慢变量。

　　戈登教授说，如果把这100年分成两个50年，那么前50年的经济增长顺风顺水，而后50年的增长则多灾多难，但是后50年的经济增长速度却比前50年来得更快。

　　技术进步并没有因为市场动荡而停滞对经济增长的影响，相反它就是经济增长的原动力，对经济增长的影响持续了前50年到后50年，乃至从此往后。

　　技术进步越重大，影响历史的进程就越缓慢，因为它会导致包括硬件和软件在内的所有系统的重建，以及我们生产和生活方式的重大改变——这是一个缓慢而艰辛的过程，我们也正是在这漫长的时间内逐渐发现它的威力并适应这种变化的。

　　比如说，美国的汽车行业始于20世纪初，最早的汽车很简陋：没有仪表盘、没有车灯、没有挡风玻璃、也没有雨刷；但是到了20世纪30年代，虽然美国处于大萧条，但汽车行业的技术和产品却日渐精湛——这就是慢变量的惯性。

　　再比如说，罗斯福总统实行行政，有一个重要的政策就是支持工人组织工会，这就造成了企业工资提高、生产成本上涨；但是这也促使企业家转而加速对机器设备的投资，技术进步的速度也随之加速了——这就是慢变量对冲击的吸收特性。

影响**的慢变量

小趋势

【读书】《1943：物种大交换开创的世界史》

1943：物种大交换开创的世界史

速记

兴趣点：

1. 为什么说烟草和蚯蚓、疟原和蚊子也是美国的奠基者？
2. 为什么说橡胶也是英国工业革命的功臣？
3. 为什么说美洲的白银也是**大明王朝灭亡的推手?

一、烟草和蚯蚓如何成为美国奠基者

1. 烟草振兴经济

　　1942年哥伦布发现新大陆，1943年哥伦布回到西班牙，欧洲人开始一点点了解到这个世界还有美洲这么一片大陆。

　　对于英国而言，条件还不完全具备大规模殖民。直到16世纪末英国打败了海上霸主西班牙，才有能力组织海外殖民。

　　1607年 英国弗吉尼亚殖民公司 在美洲大陆上建立了一个定居点，名为 詹姆斯敦。

　　但是当时英国对美洲情况不了解，以为这里遍地黄金，没有好好收集情报，就组织了很多人来这边挖矿。

　　然而詹姆斯敦这地方根本没有金银矿，殖民地于是陷入粮荒，又有本土印第安人袭击，殖民者日子苦不堪言。

　　1610年 一个新来殖民者 约翰·罗尔夫 想到可以在殖民地上种植烟草，因为美洲原产就是烟草，欧洲又流行抽烟。

　　当时的烟草都是由西班牙人在种植，罗尔夫想办法搞到了种子，在詹姆斯敦种植，卖回英国，于是起死回生。

　　所以：烟草为英国殖民者贡献了经济资本。

2. 蚯蚓改善环境

　　英国殖民者烟草生意越做越大，离不开海上运输。

　　海上运输的船只需要压舱物来抵抗风浪，通常使用的都是石头和泥土。

　　石头和泥土里面就藏着蚯蚓，美洲本土的蚯蚓在冰河期之后就灭绝了。

　　英国的蚯蚓来到美洲大陆，迅速改善了当地环境。

　　蚯蚓吃掉地里腐烂的枯枝败叶再把养分排泄到土里，同时在土地里挖出能通水通气的通道。

　　这样美洲的土地就变得肥沃，同时灌木苔藓这些依赖腐物生存的植物也消失，于是很快多出了大量可耕种的土地。

　　耕地一多，殖民者的粮食就有了保障。殖民者的地盘越来越大，最终形成美国第一个洲　弗吉尼亚。

　　所以：蚯蚓为英国殖民者贡献了粮食资本。

二、疟原和蚊子如何成为美国奠基者

　　疟疾帮殖民者战胜了美洲原著民，因为美洲原先没有疟疾，原著民也就没有抵抗能力，再加上欧洲医疗条件好，所以相对于殖民者，原著民因为它们带来的疟疾传染而大量死亡。

　　疟疾还有一个影响是，原著民少了，殖民者当地劳工不够用，于是就引入非洲黑奴，间接影响了美国南北战争和种族问题。

　　

三、橡胶如何成为英国工业革命功臣

四、美洲白银如何成为成为**大明王超灭亡推手

Reading News: Like a son but cheaper—harried South Koreans pamper pets instead of having kids

Like a son but cheaper—harried South Koreans pamper pets instead of having kids

from the Reuters

Questions:

1. “火上浇油”、“雪上加霜” 有哪几种表达？
2. What's the relationship between the South Korea's birth rate and the its pet industry?
3. What would you choose between raising kid and raising pet?

Kang Sung-il buys Sancho, his Pomeranian, a toy every business trip and this Lunar New Year holiday will dress him up in a new $50 suit to visit ‘grandma’, Kang’s mother.

harry: 不断索要；不断烦扰
She has been harried by the press all week.
harried: 不堪其扰的，不胜其烦的

pamper: ≈ spoil 宠爱，溺爱，精心照顾，娇惯
You should really pamper yourself.

Pomeranian: 博美拉尼亚狗，博美犬

Kang and his wife say children are too expensive and bring too much pressure. Instead they have opted to shower Sancho with love and gifts.

opt to do something: = choose to do something

shower: 大量给予
shower sth on sb: We will shower gifts on her.
shower sb with sth: We will shower her with gifts.

They are not alone. South Korea's pet industry is booming, fuelled by the same factors that have made the country's birth rate, at 1.05 births per woman, the lowest in the world: the high cost of education and housing as well as extremely long working days.

fuel: 为……添加燃料；刺激；加强；激发；助长
Her words fuelled my anger.

"Social pressures in South Korea are such that parents are required to provide resources for decades from private schooling to tutoring to art classes, " said Kang, a 39-year old manager of a pet funeral home.

something is such that ……: 一件事情是如此这般以至于……
Their anxiety is such that they can't sleep.

tutoring: 家教

funeral: 葬礼
funeral home: 殡仪馆
It's / That's your funeral. 你爱怎样怎样，但后果自负。

On top of education expenses, an average South Korean household must budget roughly 12.8 years of income to buy a mid-range home, compared to 8.8 years in 2014, data from KB Kookmin Bank shows. Adding to their stress, South Koreans work the third most hours per year among OECD nations, lagging just Mexico and Costa Rica.

on top of: 除了……之外还有 = in addition to
常用语令人不快的事情
On top of that, it started raining.

budget: 制定预算，计划开支
household budget: 家庭预算
budget for sth: 把某事纳入预算
budget someMoney to sth: 从预算中拨款多少给某事
She plan to budget 500 yuan for food.

adding to……: 除了……之外（还有）

OECD: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development 经济合作与发展组织，经合组织

lag: n. 落后；延迟。v. 掉队；缓慢移动
jet lag: 时差
lag behind: 落后 The little boy lagged behind his parents.
也可以做及物动词 One horse lagged the others throughout the race.

Pet-owning households have surged to 28 percent of all South Korean households in 2018, compared with 18 percent in 2012, government data shows.

surge: v. to suddenly increase

That in turn has spurred a flourishing pet care industry whose offerings include tailored pet diets and high-priced photo shoots. Pet-related startups are also in vogue with venture capitalists.

in turn: 常见意思：轮流的，依次的
文中是另外一个意思：相应的，相当于 as a result of something

spur: 促进，刺激

flourishing: 繁荣的，兴盛的 ≈ booming

tailored: 量身定制的

in vogue: 正在流行，受到青睐
The vogue is to keep pets.
Keeping pets is in vogue.

vunture capitalist: 风险资本家

The South Korean pet-related industry was worth 2.7 trillion won ($2.4 billion) last year, and that could more than double in size by 2027, according to the Korea Rural Economic Institute.

Questions:

1. “火上浇油”、“雪上加霜” 有哪几种表达？
2. What's the relationship between the South Korea's birth rate and the its pet industry?
3. What would you choose between raising kid and raising pet?

Reviews:

1. --

Reading News: Japanese billionaire takes over top spot on Twitter after he offers prize money for retweets

Japanese billionaire takes over top spot on Twitter after he offers prize money for retweets

from the Washington Post

Questions:

1. “鸡块”如何用英文表达？
2. 文中用哪个词表达“现金”？
3. 前泽友作有哪些有趣的人生经历？

What gets Twitter users more excited than a year's supply of Wendy's chicken nuggets? Apparently cold, hard cash.

nuggets: 指一小块（食物、物品等）
pure high-grade gold nuggets 高纯度的金块
a nugget of food 一小块食物

cold hard cash: 现钞，现金，真金白银，实打实的现钞

The most retweeted tweet of all time now belongs to Yusaku Maezawa, a Japanese billionaire behind the e-commerce company Zozotown. His message to the Twitterverse promised 100 winners a chance to win a piece of 100 million Japanese yen, or about $920, 800, if they retweeted him.

all time: 有史以来，史上（最）
the most xxx xxx of all time 有史以来最 xxx 的 xxx
a all-time movie start 一位史上最优秀的电影明星

e-commerce: 电子商务，电商

Twitterverse: 推特宇宙，指推特的所有用户

Maezawa said his promotion on Twitter was a show of gratitude after Zozotown sold 10 billion yen worth of merchandise during its New Year's sale. His message has been retweeted more than 5.6 million times. He said that he would contact the winners through direct message.

merchandise: 商品，推销(v)
If this product is properly merchandised, it should sell very well.

Twitter confirmed that Maezawa's post is now the most retweeted message on the platform and that the tweet is considered a "contest/sweepstakes" ad and is allowed on Twitter.

contest: 竞赛，在 tweeter 上表示一种类型的抽奖，相对于 sweepstakes 是一种有条件的抽奖方式
sweepstakes: 参与抽奖，有参与则有奖，没有附加条件

Maezawa has more than 6 million followers on Twitter. He is not only a high-profile entrepreneur: He is also slated to be SpaceX's first tourist to pay for a trip around the moon. Last year, at an unveiling at SpaceX headquarters in Hawthorne, California, Maezawa announced that he had bought every seat on SpaceX's inaugural flight to Earth's satellite, scheduled to embark in 2023 and take about a week. Maezawa said he would invite up to eight artists to join him on his journey to the moon, leading to the creation of artworks "to inspire the dreamer in all of us."

high-profile: 高调的，经常出镜的

be slated to: to plan that something will happen at a particular time in the future 安排，计划
She is slated to appear at the summer music festival next year.

unveiling: veil 女性面纱，unveil 揭开面纱/为...揭幕，unveiling 揭幕式

inaugural: 机构创立的、活动开幕的、任期开始的，first embarking beginning of something important
the President's inaugural address 总统就职

embark: 上船，登机，从事，着手，~ on 着手进行某事
She is about to embark on a new career.

leading to: 从而，表示结果

Questions:

1. “鸡块”如何用英文表达？
2. 文中用哪个词表达“现金”？
3. 前泽友作有哪些有趣的人生经历？

Reviews:

1. --

行为交易策略：长期反转（涨“久”必跌/跌“久”必涨）与短期惯性效应（追涨杀跌）

行为交易策略：长期反转（涨“久”必跌/跌“久”必涨）与短期惯性效应（追涨杀跌）

长期反转效应——涨“久”必跌/跌“久”必涨（塞勒-德邦特，1985）

异象的直观感受

　　涨“久”必跌，跌“久”必涨。关键在于“久”，如果不能准确预测多“久”，就无法实现有效的应用。

　　比如，有的人看股票跌了两个月，觉得够久了，杀进去就被套了。

异象的数据检验

　　诺奖得主 塞勒 教授和他的合作者 德邦特 教授对长期反转效应做了检验：

• 研究样本的时间范围覆盖 1926~1982，将近 56 年；

• 研究样本的取样范围覆盖 美国 纽约证券交易所 所有股票，按照样本年前 3 年的表现来排序，买入后 35 只亏得最狠的，同时卖出 35 只涨得最凶的。3 年就是他们研究出来美国市场的“久”。

　　验证结果：年化收益达到 8% 。（在美国这个成熟的市场，能获得 2% 左右的收益已经很不容易）

异象的应用范围

　　美国市场的“久”约为 三年（塞勒-德邦特研究）；**市场的“久”约为 一年半（陆蓉团队研究）。这与市场中投资者整体理性程度有关，**市场不同于美国市场，它是以散户而非机构为主。

　　利用长期反转效应，交易策略就是“买跌久的，卖涨久的”——简称“买跌卖涨”。

异象的心理学解释

　　过度反应心理（包括代表性偏差和过度自信）：跌久了，容易被人们忽视，从而形成股价低估，涨久了，容易受人们关注，从而形成股价高估。

• 代表性偏差：在处理外部信息过程中（信息加工阶段），当股票某些特征（如高成长、大比例分红、登上排行榜等情况）出现时，投资者往往会忽略其他信息，立即做出决策，导致过度反应；

• 过度自信：在做出决策的过程中（信息输出阶段），投资者又往往过于相信自己的判断，（进一步）导致过度反应。

短期惯性效应——追涨杀跌（杰格迪什-帝特曼，1993）

也叫动量效应

异象的直观感受

　　股票在短期的表现与长期正好相反——具有惯性！

　　短期，原来涨的还会涨，原来跌的还会跌。关键在于，这个“短期”是多短。

异象的数据检验

　　 提出者 杰格迪什 和 帝特曼对短期惯性效应做了检验：

• 研究样本的时间范围覆盖 1963~1989，将近 26 年；

• 研究样本的取样范围覆盖 美国 纽约证券交易所 所有股票，按照样本年前 6 个月的表现来排序并划分为 10 等分，买入涨得最好的那一组，同时卖出亏得最多的那一组。6 个月就是他们研究出来美国市场的“短期”。

　　验证结果：年化收益达到 10% 。（在美国这个成熟的市场，能获得 2% 左右的收益已经很不容易）

　　诺奖得主 法玛 甚至称它为“祖师爷”级的异象（Fama, 1988）。

　　也就是说，这个异象非常显著，而且很难消除，同时还是其它 同类 异象的根源（如年报中的价值规律）。

异象的应用范围

　　美国市场的“短期”约为 六个月（杰格迪什-帝特曼研究）；**市场的“短期”约为 ？？？（？？研究）。这与市场中投资者整体理性程度有关，**市场不同于美国市场，它是以散户而非机构为主。

　　短期惯性现象非常稳健，不仅在股票市场存在，也在外汇、期货、债券市场上广泛存在，且广泛存在与各国市场。

　　利用短期惯性效应，交易策略就是“追短期涨的，杀短期跌的”——简称“追涨杀跌”。

异象的心理学解释

　　反应不足心理（信息缓慢扩散理论，洪和施泰因-1999）：与传统金融学认为的“信息是即时的，价格立即准确反应信息”不同，信息缓慢扩散理论认为：市场上有些人离消息源近，有些人离消息源远，近者对消息敏感且反应及时，远者反之需要看到别人反应才会行动。所以人们对消息的反应总是一波一波的，这一波人先获得消息，推高了股价，下一波人后获得消息，再次推高了股价，从而出现涨者再涨（涨的惯性）效应——比如宁波涨停敢死队。

　　需要注意的是，短期惯性效应最终会因为信息完全扩散而转化为长期翻转效应。

两种异象的关系

　　这种短期惯性、长期反转的运动规律，可以把它想象成一种波浪运动。

　　短期股价会重复其原来的价格，积累到一定程度（阶段）后，长期则反转。

Reading News: Top S. Korean animal rights group slammed for destroying dogs

Top S. Korean animal rights group slammed for destroying dogs

Questions:

1. Why does CARE kill dogs?
2. “引号”用英文如何表达？
3. What do you think about destroying dog?

The leader of one of South Korea's largest animal rights groups has been accused of secretly exterminating hundreds of rescued dogs—despite a declared no-kill policy—to ensure a continued stream of donations.

slam: 猛烈抨击，猛烈关闭
be slammed for: 受到谴责、抨击

be accused for: 被指控

exterminate: to kill all of them 根除性毁灭，比 destory 严重

a stream of: 一连串，接二连三的
a stream of vistor 络绎不绝的游客
a constant stream of enquiries 一连串的询问
a never-ending/continued stream of jokes 接连不断的玩笑

despite: = in despite of 尽管

declared: 宣称，声称

这里介绍一下背景：CARE 这家机构必须不断地救助狗才能持续获得捐款收入，但是救助的狗太多没地方安置，于是杀害
至于为什么不把获得的捐款收入用于扩大安置位置，则不得而知

For years, Coexistence of Animal Rights on Earth (CARE) has spearheaded campaigns to rescue canines from dogmeat farms across the country, accumulating some 23, 000 members and around two billion won ($1.8 million) in annual donations.

spearheaded: 矛头，前锋，前锋，带头领导、倡导
作为及物动词，通常跟 attack、invasion、initiative 等

canine: 犬类，书面语

some: 大约

Staff members at CARE told the Hankyoreh newspaper that the organisation's head, Park So-yeon, had more than 230 rescued dogs destroyed because of a shortage of space at the shelter.

Hankyoreh newspaper: 韩民族日报，韩国最大报纸之一，成立于1988年，以朝鲜文发行，日发行量28万，在韩民众中可信度较高

have something done: 强调是找别人来干这件事，也就是说组织头目下令杀死这些狗，但不一定是他亲自动的手

Only 10 percent of the dogs were suffering from incurable illnesses and most were killed because of their large size, a CARE employee was quoted as saying. The animals were then listed as having been adopted.

be adapoted: 被领养

The organisation has long asserted in appeals that it does not kill dogs even if they are not adopted.

assert: 坚称

in appeals: 在呼吁中

But Park said in a statement that a "small number" of exterminations had been "inevitable" since 2015 due to a "surge in requests for rescue missions". She added that only severely aggressive dogs or those with incurable illnesses were destroyed, and only after extensive efforts to treat them first.

inevitable: inavoidable

severely: very seriously

extensive: a great mount of
an extensive range of wines
an extensive collection of silver

CARE staff members mounted a protest in the organisation's offices at the weekend to demand Park's resignation.

mount: to organize and begin something
to mount a protest
to mount a compaign

resignation: 辞职，辞呈
tender one's resignation 提交辞呈

According to a 2017 survey, 70 percent of South Koreans do not eat dogs, but far fewer—about 40 percent—believe the practice should be banned. It also found 65 percent support raising and slaughtering dogs in more humane conditions.

slaughter: 屠杀，宰杀
a lamb to be slaughtered 一头待宰羔羊

humane: 人性化的，人道的，仁慈的
a caring and humane society 一个充满关怀和仁慈的社会
the humane treatment of refugees 对难民人道对待

Questions:

1. Why does CARE kill dogs?
2. “引号”用英文如何表达？
3. What do you think about destroying dog?

Reviews:

1. --

Reading News: #10YearChallenge: harmless trend or boon to facial recognition technology?

#10YearChallenge: harmless trend or boon to facial recognition technology?

from the NewYork Times

Questions:

1. What's the specialty of the photos post by stars in #10YearChallenge?
2. “戳到痛处”用英文怎么表达？
3. Will you participate the activities like #10YearChallenge later after this affair?

The #10YearChallenge gained widespread traction on social media this month. It calls for posting two photos of yourself side by side—one from today and one from a decade ago—to show how you’ve changed. People are participating mostly on Facebook and Instagram, which is owned by Facebook.

boon: 好处，宝藏
A is a boon to B
Radio is a real boon to the blind. 收音机对盲人朋友很便利。

traction: 摩擦力，牵引力，附着力 -> 知名度
lose traction 失去吸引力
gain traction 获得知名度，流行 = become popular

calls for:
call for somebody: 接送某人
call for something: to demand that something happens 号召，呼吁，要求
This calls for a celebration.

Some made jokes, paid tribute to old hairstyles or drew attention to issues like global warming. Celebrities posted glamour shots that showed negligible changes from one decade to the next.

paid tribute to: 向……致敬
A is a tribute to B: A是对B的认可

glamour shot: 大头照
glamour 靓丽的
shot 照片

negligible: 可忽略不计的，极小的
引申从 neglect

But one post went viral without featuring any side-by-side photos. It was written by Kate O’Neill, author of the book “Tech Humanist: How You Can Make Technology Better for Business and Better for Humans.”

viral: 除了 go viral 走红
也可以：top ten viral videos of 2018

“Me 10 years ago: probably would have played along with the profile picture aging meme going around on Facebook and Instagram, ” she wrote in a tweet last week. “Me now: ponders how all this data could be mined to train facial recognition algorithms on age progression and age recognition.”

play along: （假装）顺从，跟风 to act as if you agree with something that is happening
She was fired because she refuse to play along with the coverup.

meme: 互联网上迅速传播的概念、事物；也成为“迷因”

progress & progression:
progress: the process of getting better at doing something 表示朝目标更进一步
progression: a gradual process of change or development 可以指任何变化（不一定是好是坏）

Her words hit a nerve. People responded with concerns about whether they were helping the tech giant get better at identifying people. O’Neill’s post got more than 10, 000 retweets and more than 20, 000 likes.

hit a nerve: 触动神经，戳到痛处
= touch a nerve
nerve 还有“勇气”的意思，如：lose one's nerve 失去勇气，变得害怕
nerve 也有“脸面”的意思，如：You had the nerve to insult my cooking.

Lauren A. Rhue, an assistant professor at the Wake Forest School of Business, said people should be wary of any company being in possession of such a large trove of biometric data. “There are things we don’t think of as being threats, ” Rhue said. “And then five or ten years from now, we realize that there is a threat, but the data has already been given.”

be wary of: 对……警惕

trove: 宝库
treasure trove

biometric: 生物测定的；生物特征的

Questions:

1. What's the specialty of the photos post by stars in #10YearChallenge?
2. “戳到痛处”用英文怎么表达？
3. Will you participate the activities like #10YearChallenge later after this affair?

Reviews:

1. --

Reading News: China’s film industry finally joins the space race

China’s film industry finally joins the space race

Questions:

1. What's the meaning of "holy grail"?
2. What's the special features in Liu CiXin's science fiction?
3. According to this article, what's the relationship between Chinese cinema and the nation's fortunes?

from the NewYork Times

China was a latecomer to space exploration, and in the movies, it has been a latecomer to science fiction, too. That is about to change.

science fiction: 也可简称为 sci-fi
sci-fi books

The country’s first blockbuster set in space, “The Wandering Earth, ” opens Tuesday amid grandiose expectations that it will represent the dawning of a new era in Chinese filmmaking.

blockbuster: something very successful especially a successful book or film
a Hollywood blockbuster 好莱坞大片
a blockbuster movie 大片

set in space: 以太空为背景

open: （电影）上映

amid=mid, amidst, in the middle of or surrounded by
The house is in a beautiful position amid trees.
She finished her speech amid tremendous applause.

grandioes: 宏大的，宏伟的（甚至达到不同寻常的地步）
后缀 -ose 表示 充满……的
a grandioes plan 宏大的计划
a grandioes expectations 高度期待

the dawning/dawn of something: ……的曙光
The fall of the Berlin wall marked the dawn of a new ear in European history.

“The Wandering Earth, ” shown in 3-D, takes place in a distant future in which the sun is about to expand into a red giant and devour the Earth. And the preliminary reviews have been positive.

distant: 遥远的，远房的
a distant coutry
a distant relative
in the distant past
in the not-too-distant future 在不远的将来
They plan to have children in the not-too-distant future

devour: 狼吞虎咽；吞噬，吞没
She devoured half of her burger in a bite.
The flames quickly devoured the building.

“Filmmakers in China see science fiction as a holy grail, ” said Raymond Zhou, an independent critic, who noted that Hollywood had set the technological standards, and thus audience expectations, very high.

holy grail: 圣杯 → 极难得到之物，梦寐以求的东西
原意是耶稣在最后的晚餐中使用的圣杯，也可以叫做 the Grail
something that is extremely difficult to find or get

independent critic: 独立影评人

“The Wandering Earth” is adapted from works by Liu Cixin, the writer who has led a renaissance in science fiction here, becoming the first Chinese winner of the Hugo Award for the genre in 2015. His novels are sprawling epics and deeply researched. That makes them plausible fantasies about humanity’s encounters with a dangerous universe.

be adapted from: 改编自

work: 作为作品是可数名词
the collected works of LuXun

renaissance: （尤指艺术、文学或音乐的）复兴
the Renaissance: （15、16世纪时欧洲的）文艺复兴

genre: （尤指艺术的）风格，类型，体裁
a literary/musical/film genre

sprawling: spreading in an untidy way 杂乱无序地扩展，散乱地延伸
经常用来形容一个人的字迹很潦草 sprawling handwriting
这里的 sprawling is good for describing things that extend across a large area
形容延伸到一片区域的事物，这里形容小说故事线的多样（宏大布局）

epic: 史诗

make sth sth: 使A成为B
That feature makes iphone a great invention

plausible: 貌似真实的（可信）的
a plausible explanation

encounter: n. 偶然相遇；遭遇（问题或反对）

The openings also come as China reached a milestone in space: the landing of a probe on the far side of the moon in January. Although decades behind Russia and the United States, China has now put astronauts in orbit and has ambitious plans to join—or even lead—a new age of space exploration.

milestone: 里程碑，重大事件，转折点
Columbus's voyage marked an important milestone in the history of exploration

probe: 探针；（不载人的）航天探测器

far side of the moon: 月球背面

orbit: 轨道，绕轨运行

“I think there is a very close connection between Chinese cinema and the nation’s fortunes, ” said Sha Dan, a curator at the China Film Archive.

cinema: 这里表示电影产业

fortune: （个人、家庭、国家等的）发展变化的趋势，命运，际遇
nation's fortunes 国运

curator: （博物馆、图书馆等的）馆长；策展人

archive: 档案馆，档案室；档案

Questions:

1. What's the meaning of "holy grail"?
2. What's the special features in Liu CiXin's science fiction?
3. According to this article, what's the relationship between Chinese cinema and the nation's fortunes?

Reviews:

1. --

Reading News: China's coffee upstart is pouring millions into overtaking Starbucks

China's coffee upstart is pouring millions into overtaking Starbucks

Questions:

1. “烧钱”用用于怎样表达？
2. What's the winning model of Luck-in Coffie?
3. What do you think about the future of the China's coffie business industry?

Luckin Coffee, a Chinese startup that’s banking on selling cappuccinos to on-the-go office workers, is spending millions of dollars a year opening outlets to unseat Starbucks Corp. as the top java seller in the country.

upstart: 原意是“暴发户”，这里意为 a new competitor 一个新出现的竞争企业

overtake: 超过，赶上，赶超

bank on: rely on 依靠，指望
You can bank on it 你尽管放心

on-the-go: 忙个不停的，特别忙的，忙到飞起的

outlet: 相当于 shop，不同的是专卖店

unseat: 原意是“使某人从马背上摔下来”
此处意为 remove someone from power 把某人赶下台

java: 咖啡

Launched about a year ago, the local challenger is confident it’s got a winning model: small coffee outlets that will outnumber Starbucks cafes by year’s end, an app that rushes out deliveries in about 18 minutes and lots of steep discounts. Chasing the entrenched rival, it’s burning through $130 million a year, according to the Xiamen-based company on China’s southeast coast.

winning model: 能取胜的模式，出奇制胜的模式

outnumber: （数量上）超过
Women outnumber men five to one 女性的人数是男性的五倍

rush out: 匆匆生产，匆匆赶制
She rushed out the report for the meeting.

steep: 极具的，幅度很大的
There has been a steep increase or rises in prices.

entrenched: 牢固确立的，根深蒂固的，站稳脚跟的
Ageism is entrenched in our society. 对老年人的歧视在我们的社会中根深蒂固。

burning through: 快速用尽 to use all of something quickly

“China is Starbucks’ best and most profitable market now, but it took them nine years of making huge losses, ” said Chief Strategy Officer Reinout Schakel in an interview in Beijing this week. “We will be faster than that.”

make losses: 亏损

Questions abound whether Luckin can parlay customer discounts and media hype into as powerful a brand as its rival. Starbucks reported last month that comparable sales growth could be as low as 1 percent over the long term, sparking concern that competition and cannibalization are taking their toll.

aboud: 大量存在；有很多。常与 with 连用
A abounds with B: A里面有很多B
The forests abounds with deer and birds.
= In the forests, deer and birds abound.

parlay A into B: 使A增值为B；成功利用A达成B
She parlayed his small investments into a large fortune

hype: n. & v. 炒作
media hype: 媒体炒作
The director hyped his movie.

comparable sales growth: comparable store sales growth 可比店面销售增长率
同样的几家店铺，在今年某段时间的销售额，与去年同期相比增长了多少

cannibalization:
cannibal: 食人者，残食同类的人或羔羊
cannibalize: 同类相食 -> 同一家公司的不同产品影响了彼此的销量或地位
cannigalization: 品牌内的同类相残

take their toll: 造成损失，造成严重影响
take a toll, take a heavy toll

Seeking to shift focus from its competition with Starbucks, Schakel said that China has enough potential to sustain more than one chain. Even as it mounts its challenge, Luckin still looks to Starbucks to lead the way with its considerably larger resources in promoting coffee consumption in China.

seek to do something: = try to do something

chain: 连锁店；连锁品牌

even as: = at the same time as

look to someone: 依赖、指望某人或某事

“Of course we are competitors, but ultimately we both want the market to grow, ” he said.

ultimately: 归根结底

Questions:

1. “烧钱”用用于怎样表达？
2. What's the winning model of Luck-in Coffie?
3. What do you think about the future of the China's coffie business industry?

Reviews:

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Reading News: 'It's a very big torture': the children growing up in hiding in Dubai

'It's a very big torture': the children growing up in hiding in Dubai

from The Guardian

Questions:

1. What is the meaning of "hiding" in this title?
2. What is the meaning of "flexible" in this article?
3. Why children without birth certificate have to be always hiding?

A sweltering, windowless room in an old district of Dubai, no more than 5 metres by 3 metres in size, is the only home to a six-year-old boy from the Philippines.

sweltering: Extremly hot and unconformatable, such as "sweltering heat in summer"
如何表达面积：长度 by 宽度

His name is Jerry and he shares a tiny bed with his mother, Neng. Growing up without a birth certificate means he has no access to education and has never visited a doctor. Officially, this little boy does not exist.

Why Jerry's monther Neng dosen't take her boy to make a birth certificate?
Because——

Having sex outside of marriage is a crime under the country’s Islamic laws, with convictions resulting in prison terms of up to one year. In some cases, even reporting a rape has been regarded by the authorities as illicit sex, and has led to victims being jailed.

Islamic laws: 伊斯兰法，世界五大法系之一。相对于其他法系——如欧美法系——对亲密关系比较压抑，禁止婚外性行为，甚至公共场合亲吻也被视为非法。

convict/conviction:
动词定罪，常用于被动，如一个被定罪的凶手：a convicted murder；某人被判诈骗：he was convicted of flawt
名词定罪，可用于表达某人清白，如：he has no previous convictions

prison term of = a sentens of = 什么样的刑期 = jail term of

illicit and illegal:
illegal 既可以是偷偷摸摸也可以是明目张胆，比如 illegal drags（毒品）
illicit 有一层偷偷摸摸不被发现的意思，更偏向于道德层面，如 illicit sex（通奸）

Being told why, let's listen the sound of people who suffers——

“The moment that you get pregnant, and you cannot tell anyone and you don’t know what to do, it’s a very big torture, ” says Neng.

And stretch our view wider——

It is almost impossible to know how many children are in the same position as Jerry across the country. Each month, about 40 mothers with children born out of wedlock seek assistance from the Philippines Consulate in Dubai, according to a spokesperson for the consulate. This figure is likely to be a fraction of the number of mothers who are living in hiding in the country with their children.

consulate/consul: 领事馆/领事
A consulte in B: A国驻B国领事馆，the US Consulte in Guangzhou China 美国驻**广州领事馆

born out of wedlock: 非婚生的

a fraction of: 其中一小部分

Is there any hopes?——

Yet there are signs of hope for these families. In the cases the Dubai Foundation for Women and Children has worked on, the courts have been flexible and the mother has not served a jail term. This approach could be rolled out for wider implementation.

work on: to try hard and achieve
roll out: 推出（新产品，新政策，新制度）

Questions:

1. What is the meaning of "hiding" in this title?
2. What is the meaning of "flexible" in this article?
3. Why children without birth certificate have to be always hiding?

Review:

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