datapartnership / turkiye-earthquake-impact

Türkiye Earthquake Impact

Support for Türkiye Earthquake Impact Analysis

Using Alternative Data to Understand Economic Impacts of the 2023 Turkey–Syria Earthquake

Challenge

On February 6, 2023, a powerful 7.8 magnitude earthquake and a series of strong tremors and aftershocks wrought substantial damages across southeastern Türkiye and northwest Syria. As of time of writing, the death toll has passed 40,000 and the earthquake’s aftermath is substantially impacting the people, infrastructure, and economies of the two countries. The World Bank announced $1.78 Billion for Türkiye’s recovery and reconstruction efforts. Effective World Bank and donor interventions will require a deep, data-driven understanding of these impacts.

The Türkiye Country Economist team has requested advisory on data and analytical resources that may support measurement and monitoring of socio-economic impacts, including population displacement and business impacts.

Solution

The Türkiye Country Economist team requested the WB Data Lab to explore use of alternative data to better understand immediate socio-economic impacts of the earthquake and resiliency of the affected economies. To this end, the team prepared a Strategic Brief, which presents available datasets and analytics to support answers to these questions.

From this Brief, the team requested the Lab to focus on trends in observed nighttime lights, internet connectivity, population movement, and retail activity.

The team, comprised of colleagues from the Global Operations Support Team (GOST), the Development Impact Monitoring and Evaluation team (DIME), the Development Data Partnership, and the WB Data Lab, worked with the country team to explore use of alternative open and proprietary data sources to generate new data products that can be sustainably updated.

Data Goods

Datasets and methods used to generate insights for this project have been prepared as Data Goods. Data Goods are comprised of data, reproducible methods (code), documentation, and sample insights. Unlike a traditional data analysis, which results in a single-use report or visualization, Data Goods are designed to be re-used for future updates and projects, thereby building the capacity of the World Bank and partner organizations to quickly and effectively deliver complex data science solutions to pressing global challenges.

Contents

Data

Data Availability Statement

Restrictions may apply to the data that support the findings of this study. Data received from the private sector through the Development Data Partnership are subject to the terms and conditions of the data license agreement and the "Official Use Only" data classification. These data are available upon request through the Development Data Partnership. Licensing and access information for all other datasets are included in the documentation.

License

This projects is licensed under the Mozilla Public License - see the LICENSE file for details.

turkiye-earthquake-impact's Issues

Understanding Business Impacts through Survey and Social Media Data

Obtain data / data access to Google Search Trends, GDELT, Premise field survey data. Run search term queries on business-related terms and generate short-list of trending terms compared to pre-earthquake. Generate sub-set of Premise survey results related to business activity.

Add Movement Activity Trends

Less movement typically means less economic activity. Understanding where and when population movement occurs can help inform disaster response and public policy, especially during crises.

Similarly to COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, Facebook Population During Crisis and Mapbox Movement Data, we generate a series of crisis-relevant metrics, including the sampled baseline population, percent change in population and z-score. The metrics are calculated by counting devices drawn out from a mobility data panel in each tile and at each time period and comparing to a baseline period.

Strategic Brief

Finalize a Data Lab Strategic Brief for the Türkiye Rapid Damage Needs Assessment.

Aggregate and identify Business Activity Trends

• Obtain data. Identify areas where there is a change in business activity compared to a baseline in November 2022.

Aggregate the activity index on adm2

Based on #4, generate and aggregate the proposed activity index on adm2.

Generate map layers for nighttime nlights observed

Download, clean, pre-process data for areas of interest. Generate separate map layers for lights observed in gas flaring locations and lights in other locations.

Generate Preliminary Displacement Maps

The project team will be able to produce an analysis based on the estimation of home locations and population displacement to be delivered on a weekly basis. The results could shed light on the earthquake’s effects on different areas and/or populations aggregated by seismic intensity, wealth group or additional features that become available.

Rename Admin PCodes to Names - Issue on page /notebooks/mobility/02b-poi-visitation.html

To make it more readable, we could change the admin codes to admin names

Generate maps showing changes in nighttime light

Generate maps and statistics showing changes in nighttime light intensity over time and area of interest.