gustavdelius / dbpm

dynamic benthic pelagic model

dbpm - dynamic benthic pelagic model

This repository is a global application of dbpm for studying climate change impacts on marine ecosystems and potential fisheries as part of the Fish-MIP and ISI-MIP projects and the Australian Research Council Discovery Project "Rewiring Marine Foodwebs".

The dbpm model is a coupled physical-ecological model that is forced with climate variables and can be applied globally (1 degree grid cells) or aggregated into Large Marine Ecosystems (lmes) or other spatial units. The ecological model is a dynamic size spectrum model for modelling the coupling "pelagic" size-based predators and "benthic" detritivores that share a unstructured resource pool (detritus).

The global model results for fish-mip have been published as part of an ensemble including the following papers:

Blanchard JL, Watson RA, Fulton EA, Cottrell RS, Nash KL, Bryndum-Buchholz A, Büchner M, Carozza DA, Cheung WWL, Elliott J, Davidson LK, Dulvy NK, Dunne JP, Eddy TD, Galbraith E, Lotze HK, Maury O, Müller C, Tittensor DP & Jennings S. 2017.Linked sustainability challenges and trade-offs among fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 1: 240–1249

Lotze HK, Tittensor DP, Bryndum-Buchholz A, Eddy T, Cheung WWL, Galbraith ED, Barange M, Barrier N, Bianchi D, Blanchard JL, Bopp L, Büchner M, Bulman CM, Carozza DA, Christensen V, Coll M, Dunne JP, Fulton EA, Jennings S, Jones MC, Mackinson S, Maury O, Niiranen S, Oliveros-Ramos R, Roy T, Fernandes JA, Schewe J, Shin Y-J, Silva TAM, Steenbeek JA, Stock CA, Verley P, Volkholz J, Walker ND, Worm B. 2019 Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.116(26):12907-12912.

Bryndum‐Buchholz A, Tittensor DP, Blanchard JL, Cheung WWL, Coll MC, Galbraith ED, Jennings S, Maury O, Lotze HK. 2019. Twenty‐first‐century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins. Global Change Biology. 25(2):459-472

Bryndum-Buchholz A, Prentice F, Tittensor DP, Blanchard JL, Cheung WWL, Christensen V, Galbraith ED, Maury O, Lotze HK. 2020. Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans, FACETS,doi/10.1139/facets-2019-0035

Previous versions of the coupled physical-ecological model have been been used for climate change projections here:

Blanchard, J.L., Jennings, S., Holmes, R., Harle, J., Merino, G., Allen, I., Holt, J, Dulvy N.K., & Barange, M. 2012. Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London: Biological Sciences, 367, 2979-2989.

Merino G, Barange M, Blanchard JL, Harle JL, Holmes, Icarus Allen, Edward H Allison, Marie Caroline Badjeck, Nicholas K Dulvy, Jason Holt, Simon Jennings, Christian Mullon, Lynda D Rodwell. 2012. Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate? Global Environmental Change. 22(4): 795-806.

Barange M, Merino G, Blanchard JL, Scholtens J, Harle J, Allison EH, Allen JI, Holt J, Jennings S. 2014. Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries. Nature Climate Change. 4(3):211-216

Woodworth‐Jefcoats PA, Polovina JP, Dunne JP, Blanchard JL. 2013. Ecosystem size structure response to 21st century climate projection: large fish abundance decreases in the central North Pacific and increases in the California Current. Global Change Biology.19 (3), 724-733

Woodworth-Jefcoats PA, Polovina JJ, Howell EA, Blanchard JL. 2015. Two takes on the ecosystem impacts of climate change and fishing: Comparing a size-based and a species-based ecosystem model in the central North Pacific.Progress in Oceanography. 138, 533-545

The original benthic-pelagic ecological size spectrum model was developed in the following papers:

Blanchard, J.L., Jennings, S., Law, R., Castle, M.D., McCloghrie P.,Rochet, M.J. & E. Benoît. 2009. How does abundance scale with body size in coupled size-structured food webs? Journal of Animal Ecology. 78: 270–280.

Blanchard, J.L., Law, R. ,Castle, M.D. & S. Jennings. 2011. Coupled energy pathways and the resilience of size-structured food webs. Theoretical Ecology. 4(3) 289-300

Extensions to the ecological model have also been made to capture habitat complexity and coral reef applications, including herbivore and macroalgae components. These have been published below (and see https://github.com/alicerogers).

Rogers A, Blanchard JL, Mumby PJ. 2014. Vulnerability of coral reef fisheries to a loss of structural complexity. Current Biology. 24(9): 1000-1005.

Rogers A, Blanchard JL, Mumby PJ. 2018. Fisheries productivity under progressive coral reef degradation. Current Biology. Journal of Applied Ecology. 55(3):1041-1049.

Rogers A, Blanchard JL, Newman SP, Dryden CS, Mumby PJ. 2018. High refuge availability on coral reefs increases the vulnerability of reef‐associated predators to overexploitation. Ecology. 99(2:450-463

Please contact Julia Blanchard if you are interested in using this model, for more information or to get involved in development.