jano7 / covid-19

Pandemic Simulation

COVID-19 Simulation

This is just a simulation attempt with many assumptions and simplifications. Please take it with a pinch of salt.

Parameters

• population size: UK (66m)
• R0 (reproduction number): 2.5 (no social distancing) and 1.25 (with social distancing)
• latent period (non-infectious period): 2 days on average
• communicability (infectious period): 10 days on average
• hospitalization rate: 4%
• hospitalization period: 10 days on average
• hospital death rate: 20%
• number of hospital beds: 115k

• 90% of the population got infected during the simulation
• Avoidable Deaths - deaths caused by a lack of hospital beds

• 37% of the population got infected during the simulation