maxhuguenin / cve_prioritizer

CVE_Prioritizer combines CVSS, EPSS and CISAs Known Exploited Vulnerabilities to help you prioritize vulnerabilities

CVE Prioritizer Tool

CVE_Prioritizer uses CVSS, EPSS and CISA's Known Exploited Vulnerabilities to help you prioritize vulnerability patching.

Combining CVSS, EPSS and CISA's Kev

The team at FIRST did an amazing job explaining why one would want to combine CVSS and EPSS in their EPSS User Guide. The following material has been extracted from that document.

The figure below shows the correlation between EPSS and CVSS scores based on data from 05-16-2021. Recall that EPSS produces prediction scores between 0 and 1 (0 and 100%) where higher scores suggest higher probability of exploit. Each dot represents one or more vulnerabilities (CVEs). Some vulnerabilities are labeled for illustrative purposes.

First, observe how most vulnerabilities are concentrated near the bottom of the plot, and only a small percent of vulnerabilities have EPSS scores above 50% (0.5). While there is some correlation between EPSS and CVSS scores, overall, this plot provides suggestive evidence that attackers are not only targeting vulnerabilities that produce the greatest impact, or are necessarily easier to exploit (such as for example, an unauthenticated remote code execution).

This is an important finding because it refutes a common assumption that attackers are only looking for (and using) the most severe vulnerabilities. And so, how then can a network defender choose among these vulnerabilities when deciding what to patch first?

CVSS is a useful tool for capturing the fundamental properties of a vulnerability, but it needs to be used in combination with data-driven threat information, like EPSS, in order to better prioritize vulnerability remediation efforts.

For the sake of discussion, consider the diagram below, which has been annotated to generally illustrate vulnerability priortitization.

• Vulnerabilities in the bottom left represent those that have both a lower probability of being exploited, and would incur a lower severity impact to the information system, and can therefore be deprioritized.
• Vulnerabilities in the upper left quadrant may be more likely to be exploited, but, on their own, would not critically impact the information system. (Further research, however, should be conducted in order to better understand how these sorts of vulnerabilities may be used in a chained attack.)
• Vulnerabilities in the bottom right represent those that, while may severely impact the information system, are much less likely to be exploited, relative to others, but should still be watched in the event that the threat landscape changes.
• Vulnerabilities in the upper right quadrant, on the other hand, are the most critical kinds of vulnerabilities which are both more likely to be exploited, and could fully compromise the information system, and should therefore be patched first.

This decision strategy as described above emphasizes the tremendous capability of EPSS. A network defender who has typically had to address thousands or tens of thousands of exposed vulnerabilities, is now able to spend fewer resources, to patch more vulnerabilities that are much more likely to be exploited. This capability to differentiate among vulnerabilities has never before been possible.

Our Approach

We have taken FIRST's recommendation and modified the thresholds based on our own experience.

1. We have added CISA's Known Exploited Vulnerabilities to the mix, so vulnerabilities are also prioritized based on current and past exploitation.
2. We set the CVSS Threshold to 6.0 as this the weighted average CVSS Score as per CVE Details.
3. We moved the EPSS Threshold to 0.2 as the majority of the vulnerabilities seem to lay below that 0.2 score, giving a higher relevance for the ones that go above the threshold.

Below is a modified version of FIRST's recommendation with our own approach.

The Result

Our approach will divide vulnerabilities into 5 possible categories or more specifically priorities:

Priority	Description
Priority 1+	CVEs found in CISA's KEV
Priority 1	CVEs in the Upper Right Quadrant
Priority 2	CVEs in the Lower Right Quadrant
Priority 3	CVEs in the Upper Left Quadrant
Priority 4	CVEs in the Lower Left Quadrant

Note: You can define your own thresholds when running the tool to tailor the results to your organization's risk appetite.

Usage

Now that we have explained the sources and our approach, lets take a look at how to use CVE_Prioritizer.

Inputs

CVE_Prioritizer allows you to provide the input CVEs on different ways.

Single CVE

To check a single CVE you can use the -c or --cve flags

python3 cve_prioritizer.py -c CVE-2020-29127

List of CVEs

You can also provide a list of space separated CVEs

python3 cve_prioritizer.py -l CVE-2020-29127 CVE-2017-16885

File with CVES

You can additionally import a file with CVE IDs (One per line)

python3 cve_prioritizer.py -f ~\Desktop\CheckThisCVEs.txt

Outputs

You can decide how much information is provided by choosing verbose mode, Prioritizer will by default give you the summary results (CVE-ID + Priority)

but you can use the -v or --verbose flags to get additional information such as:

• EPSS Score
• CVSS Base Score
• CVSS Version
• CVSS Severity
• CISA KEV Status (TRUE or FALSE)

Happy Patching!